6/3/24 - vrockstar - 
HQY - recycling a comment i made post last Q (before i started publishing on everything) b/c the logic remains basically identical and the stock is in the exact same space. what i'd point out for what's changed since, however are two things
- B2B software has gotten slammed, so the fact this has held up is impressive and testament to the sticky holder and good biz performance
- healthcare has also done well (where these guys serve) which could explain the move. the fact that we can forecast better look-thru growth in HC vs. other sectors might explain the stock too.
i'd look to own it in the high 60s (though admit that's a greedy target) where my FCF yield starts to better approximate 5%, which gives me upside in this grower. i think you could make $ buying it in the low 70s, however, and i'll set my alerts in the 73ish region - b/c 4%+ yield + growing is a fair price for a good biz.
gl to the holders.
3/19/24 - 3% FCF yield growing 10% a year seems like good "tech"-ish - but GM of 50% isn't true tech, neither is YoY growth of 15% which is fine but not worth 7x sales (1 bn next year on 7x = the ent value today) and also they've got net debt of 700 mm or about 10% of value of co which is a small -ve (though wb more meaningful if it was not generating cash), seems like a well-oiled "PE" style machine - but not my taste for LT outsized gains, stock is already worked/ at highs. congrats, but pass until this trades meaningfully lower and w/o any hiccup on the ops
HQY - recycling a comment i made post last Q (before i started publishing on everything) b/c the logic remains basically identical and the stock is in the exact same space. what i'd point out for what's changed since, however are two things- B2B software has gotten slammed, so the fact this has held up is impressive and testament to the sticky holder and good biz performance
- healthcare has also done well (where these guys serve) which could explain the move. the fact that we can forecast better look-thru growth in HC vs. other sectors might explain the stock too.
i'd look to own it in the high 60s (though admit that's a greedy target) where my FCF yield starts to better approximate 5%, which gives me upside in this grower. i think you could make $ buying it in the low 70s, however, and i'll set my alerts in the 73ish region - b/c 4%+ yield + growing is a fair price for a good biz.
gl to the holders.
3/19/24 - 3% FCF yield growing 10% a year seems like good "tech"-ish - but GM of 50% isn't true tech, neither is YoY growth of 15% which is fine but not worth 7x sales (1 bn next year on 7x = the ent value today) and also they've got net debt of 700 mm or about 10% of value of co which is a small -ve (though wb more meaningful if it was not generating cash), seems like a well-oiled "PE" style machine - but not my taste for LT outsized gains, stock is already worked/ at highs. congrats, but pass until this trades meaningfully lower and w/o any hiccup on the ops
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.