Good afternoon -- Here is my weekly perspective for 
IBIT
IV (43.42%) entering the week sits in the 6th percentile for the year. HV10 (28.24%) has been lowering towards it's yearly lows of 23.43% showing a coiling of bi-weekly values at 95.19% from this -- and a divergence from IV of -15.81% . IV is chasing the sinking bi-weekly volatility trends. We generally could see a volatility bounce within this range or continue to grind to new volatility lows.
I always expect and prepare for both, Lewis Pastor once said, "in a scientific setting, chance favors the prepared mind". I hold that true in a lot of situational settings not just scientific, but find it to be very true with
BTCUSD volatility and risk management.
Moving deeper into the week; what can we expect?
Well, I think that the final shakeout may be here as we consolidate more into the beginning of the week finalizing on Tuesday, June 3rd. I find significance on this date being the extension in time from selling off for 45 days after the initial 'W' distribution off the top -- potentially the start of the volatility swing back towards long-term trending means and maybe the start of another impulse run to track into..stay tuned to find out in observation.
If this week we find regression to HV63 (49.26%), it will be a swift and quick move showing lots of strength. The ability to capture premium between the difference of stated IV from lowering HV10 values to the volatility swing back up above IV to quarterly means, is what it is all about! This capture can be upwards 5.84% as a volatility metric read and beyond, because when a volatility regression occurs, it moves past means until having to consolidate back downwards again. Rinse and repeat.
For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey.
IBIT IV (43.42%) entering the week sits in the 6th percentile for the year. HV10 (28.24%) has been lowering towards it's yearly lows of 23.43% showing a coiling of bi-weekly values at 95.19% from this -- and a divergence from IV of -15.81% . IV is chasing the sinking bi-weekly volatility trends. We generally could see a volatility bounce within this range or continue to grind to new volatility lows.
I always expect and prepare for both, Lewis Pastor once said, "in a scientific setting, chance favors the prepared mind". I hold that true in a lot of situational settings not just scientific, but find it to be very true with
BTCUSD volatility and risk management.Moving deeper into the week; what can we expect?
Well, I think that the final shakeout may be here as we consolidate more into the beginning of the week finalizing on Tuesday, June 3rd. I find significance on this date being the extension in time from selling off for 45 days after the initial 'W' distribution off the top -- potentially the start of the volatility swing back towards long-term trending means and maybe the start of another impulse run to track into..stay tuned to find out in observation.
If this week we find regression to HV63 (49.26%), it will be a swift and quick move showing lots of strength. The ability to capture premium between the difference of stated IV from lowering HV10 values to the volatility swing back up above IV to quarterly means, is what it is all about! This capture can be upwards 5.84% as a volatility metric read and beyond, because when a volatility regression occurs, it moves past means until having to consolidate back downwards again. Rinse and repeat.
For those interested in volatility analysis and the application of weighted HV ranges to IV, I encourage you to BOOST and share this post, leave a comment, or follow me to join me on this journey.
Trade closed manually
I have LEAP positioning -- We will examine weekly as we trade leverage shorter term, look out for my BITx post as well.
Dive deeper into the world of volatility with me — Post a comment, ask a question, and BOOST the post if you’d like.
Make sure you 'Grab my Chart' weekly to pull my data onto your screen!
Find me over on the 'X' platform:
@askHVtobidIV
Make sure you 'Grab my Chart' weekly to pull my data onto your screen!
Find me over on the 'X' platform:
@askHVtobidIV
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Dive deeper into the world of volatility with me — Post a comment, ask a question, and BOOST the post if you’d like.
Make sure you 'Grab my Chart' weekly to pull my data onto your screen!
Find me over on the 'X' platform:
@askHVtobidIV
Make sure you 'Grab my Chart' weekly to pull my data onto your screen!
Find me over on the 'X' platform:
@askHVtobidIV
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.