🧠 Macro Context
* The Trump tariff news shocked risk-on assets, and small caps were hit hardest.
* IWM broke below the $195-$199 demand zone, now sliding into dealer gamma hedging territory.
* GEX flow now clearly suggests a momentum-driven selloff, with risk of gamma acceleration if $192 breaks down.
📊 Technical Analysis (1H)
🔺 Previous Structure:
* IWM retested $201 after consolidating for days, then dumped hard, invalidating the breakout structure.
* The large red candle broke through the HVL zone ($199) and cleared multiple support levels in one move.
🔻 Current Zone:
* Trading near $192.40, where there's no immediate gamma support, making this a vulnerable spot.
Key Levels:
* Immediate Resistance:
* $198 – PUT Wall zone (2nd wall)
* $199–$201 – HVL, former support now resistance
* $203–$206 – stacked GEX CALL walls
* Support Zone:
* $191.43 – session low
* $190–$188 = potential short-term bounce zone if VIX compresses
* Below $188 = open gamma air pocket to $185
🧨 GEX + Options Sentiment
GEX Analysis (Options GEX [PRO]):
* 🔴🔴🔵 GEX = short gamma, dealers are likely short puts and hedging by selling into weakness.
* $198: 2nd PUT Wall and GEX floor — breaking this triggered the slide.
* No firm GEX support until $190, meaning price can overshoot downward.
Options Oscillator:
* IVR 40.4 / IVx avg 39.7 – moderate vol setup, but rising put pressure post-tariff.
* PUTs 21.5% – leaning bearish
* Spike in upcoming OPEX gamma positioning means dealers are reactive, not supportive.
🎯 Trade Setups
🐻 Bearish Continuation:
* Entry: Breakdown below $192.00
* Target: $190 → $188
* Stop: Above $195 reclaim
* Contracts: 0DTE or 2DTE $190P / $188P
🐂 Bounce Reversal Play:
* Only viable if $192.00 forms a strong base and we reclaim $195 with volume
* Target: $198–$201 (retest of breakdown)
* Contracts: 0DTE $195C / Spread to $198
🔍 Conclusion:
IWM is under pressure with no strong gamma cushion until $190. If $192 fails, expect volatility spikes. Dealers are likely hedging against further downside. Only reversal signal would be a strong reclaim above $195–$198, which may spark a reflex rally.
Suggested Play:
* Scalpers: $192.00 key pivot
* Swing: Bearish bias into $190 unless bulls reclaim $195 HVL zone
* Options: Puts for continuation / tight call spreads only above $198
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Always manage risk and trade with discipline.
* The Trump tariff news shocked risk-on assets, and small caps were hit hardest.
* IWM broke below the $195-$199 demand zone, now sliding into dealer gamma hedging territory.
* GEX flow now clearly suggests a momentum-driven selloff, with risk of gamma acceleration if $192 breaks down.
📊 Technical Analysis (1H)
🔺 Previous Structure:
* IWM retested $201 after consolidating for days, then dumped hard, invalidating the breakout structure.
* The large red candle broke through the HVL zone ($199) and cleared multiple support levels in one move.
🔻 Current Zone:
* Trading near $192.40, where there's no immediate gamma support, making this a vulnerable spot.
Key Levels:
* Immediate Resistance:
* $198 – PUT Wall zone (2nd wall)
* $199–$201 – HVL, former support now resistance
* $203–$206 – stacked GEX CALL walls
* Support Zone:
* $191.43 – session low
* $190–$188 = potential short-term bounce zone if VIX compresses
* Below $188 = open gamma air pocket to $185
🧨 GEX + Options Sentiment
GEX Analysis (Options GEX [PRO]):
* 🔴🔴🔵 GEX = short gamma, dealers are likely short puts and hedging by selling into weakness.
* $198: 2nd PUT Wall and GEX floor — breaking this triggered the slide.
* No firm GEX support until $190, meaning price can overshoot downward.
Options Oscillator:
* IVR 40.4 / IVx avg 39.7 – moderate vol setup, but rising put pressure post-tariff.
* PUTs 21.5% – leaning bearish
* Spike in upcoming OPEX gamma positioning means dealers are reactive, not supportive.
🎯 Trade Setups
🐻 Bearish Continuation:
* Entry: Breakdown below $192.00
* Target: $190 → $188
* Stop: Above $195 reclaim
* Contracts: 0DTE or 2DTE $190P / $188P
🐂 Bounce Reversal Play:
* Only viable if $192.00 forms a strong base and we reclaim $195 with volume
* Target: $198–$201 (retest of breakdown)
* Contracts: 0DTE $195C / Spread to $198
🔍 Conclusion:
IWM is under pressure with no strong gamma cushion until $190. If $192 fails, expect volatility spikes. Dealers are likely hedging against further downside. Only reversal signal would be a strong reclaim above $195–$198, which may spark a reflex rally.
Suggested Play:
* Scalpers: $192.00 key pivot
* Swing: Bearish bias into $190 unless bulls reclaim $195 HVL zone
* Options: Puts for continuation / tight call spreads only above $198
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes only. Always manage risk and trade with discipline.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.