Jnug to Gold Feb 24th

SO I bet many people were wondering WTF is up with the price of JNUG if gold broke out the last two days. Well the answer is that the cycle for miners is coming to an end and there is usually a little pullback during the bullish times and a huge drop during the bearish times. *(look at miners from 11/14 to 12/08 and see what the price action did compared to spot gold which was tanking hard during that period. Miners does not always follow gold perfectly. But when it does correspond, we can get big moves like we had over the last two months) Since we are currently finishing a bullish impulse then we should continue to drop into next week. How much is the question. I put an extension on the 100DMA and 50 DMA to show where they should cross. I am hoping that price can drop to that location where they cross but at least think we could close that last gap just above it. The light green area is where I plan on selling my JDST and buying JNUG. There is always a pop in Jnug when the cycle starts. Just look at price when the cycle start on 1/27 and then again on 12/20. Evan during bearish times like on 11/14 we had a little pop. So I hoping for JNUG to fall to $8.75 range with an expected pop to $11.30. If price does not break through again then it appears it could chop sideways for a while.
The black triangles below are approximate zones where I am predicting without much certainty, that spot gold DCL should occur. I am not totally sold that we completed a DCL for spot gold yet and it may start to drop down to a decent 50% retracement or 50DMA.
I also have changed my spot gold opinion as of 2 days ago since gold has now finally broken through the zone I talked about. I will post the gold chart after this. So I am short miners for at least into next week.

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Spot Gold chart

Since we broke through that green zone, IMO that nullifies the earlier count and supports the very large ABC pattern. No I do not think we are in the start of a larger wave 3. But more likely a large wave C. A lot of times Wave C = A so I drew that in. The black dotted line is a diagnol measurement of Wave A from the first part of 2016. I also put in the possibility that wave C ends early and that we do not break through that long term downtrend line. If we do not break through then I believe we will see a Wave X down before we possibly start a true 1- 5 bullish gold move.
There is also a very bearish possibility that should be at the very least looked at. What if we do get rejected at the downtrend line and what if we are actually in a very large ABCDE wedge consolidation. If that is the case then as the count is now, after E heads up then usually the wedge breaks opposite of the direction of the E wave. That means down.... bigly.

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Yen chart

the last issue that I have which is suggesting a bearish outcome for gold is this yen chart. If in fact we do complete a wave 5, then that suggests that gold will drop a lot more. If you look at this chart and compare it to the spot gold price, you will see it correlates to gold a little better than the dollar....at least for the last several months.

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JNUG Blood

Holy cow!! I bet there is not a soul on earth that could have predicted that drop. That clearly blew through my target. So now this makes me a little nervous. Reason being is that I would expect this to continue down until at least Friday or maybe even to the measured cycle date end of 3/07 (next Tuesday). But we are closed past the BBand and I would at least expect one green day for Jnug tomorrow. I also dont want to be too greedy so I am tempted to just sell my JDST and take profit. But at the same time, we still have 4 - 6 more trading days until the miners cycle should end and I would hate myself if I sold and then miners continue to sell off. So I am probably going to hold for at least two more days and trust my cycles and go from there. Now that we have dropped this far, I updated my chart to show what I think could happen over the next 4 - 6 days. Two price targets below. We are oversold on the RSI (5) but not quite oversold on RSI(14). So for the RSI (5) I am looking for some type of bullish or hidden bullish divergence. then I would buy JNUG. GL

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By the way, if anyone has any other ideas, please feel free to show them. I am always open to other perspectives.

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Spot Gold looking very very weak !

So right now gold is pushing up against the 10 DMA and the 200 week MA. I feel confident that tonight it will tank. I think the combination of the recent Fed hawkishness and the Trump speech in a hour will be the rug pull. So I am not thinking we will hit knew lows but I have a target of the 100 week MA area or approximately 1209 - 1205 before any pop back up. And I am not expecting the drop to take that long....maybe only a few days. This DCL for gold has been stretched IMO. And if I am right, .... Just think what that will do to miners. Look out below. So long as Trump does not talk about the dollar again then I expect that we will finally drop into golds daily cycle low (DCL). GL to all

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Jnug update, March 2nd through the 6th

So I would like to give a brief update about my thoughts on Jnugs for the next day or three. We will end the cycle any time now. Maybe we hit bottom today but I doubt it. Spot gold finally closed below the 20DMA and that means we should really drop now. I think that tomoroows data and Yellen will drop gold and assist Jnug down to its bottom. So I have updated my targets for Jnug. The first is the old downtrend line that I have marked with the new yellow circle. I forgot about that line and it should be respected. That target area is at about $5.50 range. The next is the bottom of the inclining line that I drew at about $4.50. And lastly the Euphoric area would be all the way down to fill that first gap at $3.80. Since we closed strong to the downside in Jnug, and with all other things being considered, plus the fact that the cycle could end on Monday or Tuesday at the very latest,....well, you can see what I am expecting. By the way, I am not expecting a supper huge pop in Jnug. Maybe but maybe not. The reason is because of all the Jobs stuff next week. I am expecting a huge ADP and NFP on Friday. Then I am also expecting the Rate hike. So gold could possibly go down further and make a lower low. And as I explained before, that will prevent Jnug from flying. Look at Jnug in mid November to get an idea. GL

SalN

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SalN