LCrude Oil: Bearish Pressure as Brazil Emerges as an Energy Powerhouse
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
LCrude (Ticker AT:Lcrude), which replicates the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contract, has been one of the most volatile assets in 2025. It faces mounting pressure from a growing global supply, cautious demand, and a renewed wave of investment in Latin America—especially in Brazil.
Technical Analysis
Technically, LCrude has lost momentum since the April 2024 highs near $87 per barrel. After breaking the upward trendline in late June, the same daily candle triggered a corrective move toward the $64–$65 range, where it has been trading since. The price entered a downward channel, and the key $66 support was broken decisively. Losing that level opens the door for a drop toward $60 per barrel. On the upside, a recovery above $73 would reignite buying pressure, targeting $78 near the long-term point of control. The support around the $54.72 lows reinforces the view that LCrude is now trading around its mean. Moving average crossovers—where the 200-period MA sits above the 50-period—suggest that price corrections may continue.
Fundamental Analysis
On the macroeconomic front, concerns over economic slowdowns in China and Europe are weighing on demand expectations. At the same time, the outlook for a supply surplus is solidifying, particularly with signals coming from emerging producer countries. One of the most significant developments is the resurgence of Brazilian oil—a silent revolution that could shift the global energy power balance. Brazil, now an external member of OPEC+, has impressed with record discoveries and licensing rounds. Its offshore projects offer an internal rate of return (IRR) close to 26%, among the highest in the world. Sector Experts project that by 2030, Brazil could surpass 5 million barrels per day, placing it among the global top five, just behind the U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia.
However, the sustainability of this growth will depend on the exploration of new frontiers, such as the Foz do Amazonas basin. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that without new discoveries, production could begin to decline after 2030.
Conclusion
LCrude's performance will depend on both technical patterns and fundamental factors tied to geopolitics and the global supply-demand balance. Brazil’s rise on the global energy map and the context of oversupply exert structural bearish pressure on the market. Nonetheless, current levels continue to offer opportunities for traders focused on range strategies and momentum.
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La información facilitada no constituye un análisis de inversiones. El material no se ha elaborado de conformidad con los requisitos legales destinados a promover la independencia de los informes de inversiones y, como tal, debe considerarse una comunicación comercial.
Toda la información ha sido preparada por ActivTrades ("AT"). La información no contiene un registro de los precios de AT, o una oferta o solicitud de una transacción en cualquier instrumento financiero. Ninguna representación o garantía se da en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de esta información.
Cualquier material proporcionado no tiene en cuenta el objetivo específico de inversión y la situación financiera de cualquier persona que pueda recibirlo. La rentabilidad pasada no es un indicador fiable de la rentabilidad futura. AT presta un servicio exclusivamente de ejecución. En consecuencia, toda persona que actúe sobre la base de la información facilitada lo hace por su cuenta y riesgo.
By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
LCrude (Ticker AT:Lcrude), which replicates the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contract, has been one of the most volatile assets in 2025. It faces mounting pressure from a growing global supply, cautious demand, and a renewed wave of investment in Latin America—especially in Brazil.
Technical Analysis
Technically, LCrude has lost momentum since the April 2024 highs near $87 per barrel. After breaking the upward trendline in late June, the same daily candle triggered a corrective move toward the $64–$65 range, where it has been trading since. The price entered a downward channel, and the key $66 support was broken decisively. Losing that level opens the door for a drop toward $60 per barrel. On the upside, a recovery above $73 would reignite buying pressure, targeting $78 near the long-term point of control. The support around the $54.72 lows reinforces the view that LCrude is now trading around its mean. Moving average crossovers—where the 200-period MA sits above the 50-period—suggest that price corrections may continue.
Fundamental Analysis
On the macroeconomic front, concerns over economic slowdowns in China and Europe are weighing on demand expectations. At the same time, the outlook for a supply surplus is solidifying, particularly with signals coming from emerging producer countries. One of the most significant developments is the resurgence of Brazilian oil—a silent revolution that could shift the global energy power balance. Brazil, now an external member of OPEC+, has impressed with record discoveries and licensing rounds. Its offshore projects offer an internal rate of return (IRR) close to 26%, among the highest in the world. Sector Experts project that by 2030, Brazil could surpass 5 million barrels per day, placing it among the global top five, just behind the U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia.
However, the sustainability of this growth will depend on the exploration of new frontiers, such as the Foz do Amazonas basin. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that without new discoveries, production could begin to decline after 2030.
Conclusion
LCrude's performance will depend on both technical patterns and fundamental factors tied to geopolitics and the global supply-demand balance. Brazil’s rise on the global energy map and the context of oversupply exert structural bearish pressure on the market. Nonetheless, current levels continue to offer opportunities for traders focused on range strategies and momentum.
*******************************************************************************************
La información facilitada no constituye un análisis de inversiones. El material no se ha elaborado de conformidad con los requisitos legales destinados a promover la independencia de los informes de inversiones y, como tal, debe considerarse una comunicación comercial.
Toda la información ha sido preparada por ActivTrades ("AT"). La información no contiene un registro de los precios de AT, o una oferta o solicitud de una transacción en cualquier instrumento financiero. Ninguna representación o garantía se da en cuanto a la exactitud o integridad de esta información.
Cualquier material proporcionado no tiene en cuenta el objetivo específico de inversión y la situación financiera de cualquier persona que pueda recibirlo. La rentabilidad pasada no es un indicador fiable de la rentabilidad futura. AT presta un servicio exclusivamente de ejecución. En consecuencia, toda persona que actúe sobre la base de la información facilitada lo hace por su cuenta y riesgo.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.