LINK‑USDT | 4H / 1H Confluence Play – “Gap Rebalance or Flush?”
LINK‑USDT | 4H / 1H Confluence Play – “Gap Rebalance or Flush?”
LINK is drifting up into a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) at 16.48 – 16.65 USDT, created by:
Historically, 70 % of crypto FVGs of this height (≤ 0.8 %) get at least a midpoint tag within 5 sessions. The mean reversal clock is 10‑15 minutes once price first pokes the gap; if we churn inside for > 3× M5 bars without rejection, odds flip to acceptance.
What I’m watching inside the zone
When all three align, I’ll size up; otherwise this is just a magnet, not a wall.
Blind‑limit ladder (probe only)
Trade thesis: This zone is “unfinished business.” If order‑flow confirms rejection, expect a swift mean reversion; if price converts single prints into value (multiple prints + rising OI), abandon the short bias and look for acceptance > 16.80.
LINK is drifting up into a Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) at 16.48 – 16.65 USDT, created by:
- 4H + 1H Fair‑Value Gap (bearish displacement candle of 22 May)
- TPO single‑print strip on both Binance LINKUSDT perp and spot – un‑auctioned prices from 16.48 to 16.60
- 0.764 / 0.786 fib retrace of the current downswing
- Minor composite LVN just above at 16.70‑16.75 – ideal liquidity sweep level
Historically, 70 % of crypto FVGs of this height (≤ 0.8 %) get at least a midpoint tag within 5 sessions. The mean reversal clock is 10‑15 minutes once price first pokes the gap; if we churn inside for > 3× M5 bars without rejection, odds flip to acceptance.
What I’m watching inside the zone
- M5 structure break – lower‑high or close below last M5 swing low.
- OI stall or roll‑over – no new longs piling in.
- CVD flip ≤ 0 – aggressive sellers absorb bids.
When all three align, I’ll size up; otherwise this is just a magnet, not a wall.
Blind‑limit ladder (probe only)
- 16.535 (gap midpoint) – 25 % size
- 16.590 (single‑print top) – 35 %
- 16.665 (liquidity sweep under LVN) – 40 %
- Unified stop: 16.78 (above LVN cluster, 0.9 % risk)
Trade thesis: This zone is “unfinished business.” If order‑flow confirms rejection, expect a swift mean reversion; if price converts single prints into value (multiple prints + rising OI), abandon the short bias and look for acceptance > 16.80.
Note
Update (live feed): Price grinding into the PRZ, now 16.46 → 16.55 while CVD dynamics diverge.
Order‑flow read
Spot CVD (5‑min) keeps stair‑stepping lower ⬇ – net market sells are still being absorbed.
- Perp CVD holds a shallow uptick ⬆ – longs (or maker hedges) doing the lifting.
- OI ticking higher but starting to flatten on the last 2 × M1 prints – first hint that the long basis trade may be running out of runway.
Interpretation: classic absorption/hedge pattern. If perp CVD now rolls flat‑to‑red while OI stops rising, those newly minted longs will be fuel for a squeeze‑and‑dump back out of the gap.
Execution plan (unchanged but time‑boxed):
1. Let price tag 16.48 – 16.60.
2. Wait ≤ 15 minutes for the combo:
=> M5 lower‑high or close < last M5 swing low inside the strip.
=> Perp CVD ≤ 0 (spot already negative).
=> OI flat / down → longs covering, not adding.
Short on the structure break or first pull‑back; stop 16.78.
⚠ No confluence, no trade. If perp CVD stays bid and OI climbs beyond the 15‑minute window, treat the gap as acceptance and scrap the short idea.
Stay nimble – reaction > prediction.
#LINK #FVG #OrderFlow #TPO
Trade active
Trade is active! Manage risk, have fun. Entry at 16.535. -- May the odds be in your favor.
Note
Core PPI came in at PPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.0% 0.2% 0.3%This can blast price through the imbalance. Beware and use tight stops.
Note
DXY Dollar ripping = crypto dipping — usuallyHowever,
A sharp DXY pop has spelled trouble for crypto in most past cases (Mar ’20: DXY +8 % → BTC ‑53 %; Sep ’22: DXY +4 % → BTC ‑16 %). With today’s dollar spike on PPI/core fears, the short‑term bias stays risk‑off for BTC unless a strong crypto‑specific catalyst kicks in.
So this idea is for now still active. Invalidation of BTC starts ripping up - that will bring tier-1 altcoins up as well.
Note
I had closed my position with very small loss when we broke out of 16.60. I reopened a bigger position here. Note
Pixel perfect entry. I moved my SL now to my entry at 16.83.Note
Note
Last one got stopped out at break even. Entered again at this level
Note
I had increased my SL slightly towards the 17.11 area. Trade is still active. 
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.