LULU Swing Trade Plan – 2025-06-06

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📉 LULU Swing Trade Plan – 2025-06-06
Bias: Moderately Bearish
Timeframe: 5–10 days
Catalyst: Oversold momentum, heavy put OI, technical downtrend
Trade Type: Single-leg put option

🧠 Model Summary Table
Model Direction Strike Entry Price Targets Stop Confidence
Grok Moderately Bearish $240 PUT $0.75 +50% < $235 stock 72%
Claude Moderately Bullish $280 CALL $2.74 +45–100% –50% premium 75%
Llama Moderately Bearish $260 PUT $4.40 +50% ($6.60) $2.00 75%
Gemini Strongly Bearish $240 PUT $0.75 +100–200% $0.37 75%
DeepSeek Moderately Bullish $300 CALL $0.64 +100–200% $0.32 75%

✅ Consensus: Oversold with strong bearish trend
⚠️ Disagreement: Some models expect a bounce; others expect continued capitulation

📉 Technical & Sentiment Summary
Trend: Strong multi-timeframe bearish (price below all major EMAs)

RSI: Deeply oversold across charts

MACD: Bearish with early signs of momentum fading

Sentiment: Heavy put OI at $240/$260, falling VIX, some speculative reversal interest

Max Pain: $300 (well above current)

✅ Final Trade Setup
Parameter Value
Instrument LULU
Direction PUT (SHORT)
Strike $260
Expiry 2025-06-20
Entry Price $4.40
Profit Target $6.60 (≈+50%)
Stop Loss $2.20 (≈–50%)
Size 1 contract
Entry Timing At market open
Confidence 75%

💡 Rationale: Balanced premium vs. downside exposure, fits current trend and offers high R/R around near-the-money strike

⚠️ Key Risks & Considerations
Oversold RSI: May cause short-lived relief rally

Macro Reversal: Broader risk-on rally or LULU-specific positive catalyst could invalidate trade

Theta Decay: Accelerates next week → use time-based stop if trend fades

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