6/6/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
LULU
Buy $260s, but not "need" to own
- stock is objectively a buy here in the $260s, let's get that out of the way
- but when it comes to "what can happen next" or "what's the floor/drawdown", i think a few considerations
- flat EPS guide in '25 is not bc of structural issues w brand, so high teens PE esp on '26 #s is reasonable and FCF supports in mid to high 4s on '26 ests.
- the main fly in the ointment is obviously the US consumer and recession issues (second would be tariffs and ability to take price - which they talked on conf call - into this "weaker" consumer)
- ultimately i'd expect the stock to recover a bit here into the high $200s... perhaps $280 such macro doesn't fall to pieces immediately, but will be hard to see stock recover $300 soon.
- i also tend to think the lows could be tested if we get a risk off moment sooner vs. later
- and this isn't a "need to own" in my book at the moment, esp while i'm packing high conviction on obtc, nxt, gamb, tsm and starting to wrangle tsla as of y'day.
- so let's see.
- i won't get *too* greedy. i'm tempted here.
tldr
- but my target is probably in the sub $250 level to start biting and building position
be well my friends, have a good weekend!
V
LULUBuy $260s, but not "need" to own
- stock is objectively a buy here in the $260s, let's get that out of the way
- but when it comes to "what can happen next" or "what's the floor/drawdown", i think a few considerations
- flat EPS guide in '25 is not bc of structural issues w brand, so high teens PE esp on '26 #s is reasonable and FCF supports in mid to high 4s on '26 ests.
- the main fly in the ointment is obviously the US consumer and recession issues (second would be tariffs and ability to take price - which they talked on conf call - into this "weaker" consumer)
- ultimately i'd expect the stock to recover a bit here into the high $200s... perhaps $280 such macro doesn't fall to pieces immediately, but will be hard to see stock recover $300 soon.
- i also tend to think the lows could be tested if we get a risk off moment sooner vs. later
- and this isn't a "need to own" in my book at the moment, esp while i'm packing high conviction on obtc, nxt, gamb, tsm and starting to wrangle tsla as of y'day.
- so let's see.
- i won't get *too* greedy. i'm tempted here.
tldr
- but my target is probably in the sub $250 level to start biting and building position
be well my friends, have a good weekend!
V
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.