Crude oil is sitting at a critical technical level. Zooming out to the daily chart, we’re seeing a textbook double bottom forming at $64.70 a level that’s already been defended twice this summer. Each time price tagged that zone, buyers stepped in with conviction, and last month we saw a strong rally pushing up toward the mid-70s before stalling.
That rally has since pulled back, but here’s the key: the pullback isn’t impulsive it’s corrective. Price is now compressing just above the POC (Point of Control) at $65.88, and right at the golden neckline zone of the double bottom. As long as we hold above $65.50–65.80 on a daily close, the bullish thesis remains valid.
Market Structure Summary
- Double bottom anchored at $64.71
- POC: $65.88 acting as support
- 50% retracement: $71.86 key target if bulls take control
- 100% measured move: $79.01 potential swing target
- Short-term price action still bearish, but macro structure is shifting
Quant Bias
Right now, the data shows a strong confluence zone between $65.50–$66.00. We’re seeing prior demand, volume clustering, and macro structure all stacking here. That’s high-probability territory for mean reversion or trend continuation not collapse.
While short-term charts may still look weak, this is exactly the type of spot where weak hands get flushed before a strong trend resumes. If bulls reclaim $67.60 and close above $68.00 early this week, that’s your first sign this thing is loading.
Trade Setup Plan
- Swing Long (Primary Setup)
- Entry Zone: $65.50–66.00
- TP1: $68.33 (short-term fib & volume shelf)
- TP2: $71.86 (50% retracement of range)
- TP3: $79.00 (full double bottom target)
- Stop: Daily close below $64.50 = structure breaks
Scalp Short (Only if Monday Fakes Out)
- Entry: $67.60 (into fake out zone)
- TP: $66.80 / $66.50
- SL: Above $67.85
Treat as short-term only don’t overstay
Monday Game plan
Watch for a flush into $65.80, ideally with some wicks and basing on the 30m chart. If that happens and we see buyers defending the low with volume, that’s the cue to get long. The safer long comes on a reclaim of $67.60 with strong follow-through. If we open and trap above $67.50 but fail to hold it, classic short-term fade opportunity down to $66.50.
That rally has since pulled back, but here’s the key: the pullback isn’t impulsive it’s corrective. Price is now compressing just above the POC (Point of Control) at $65.88, and right at the golden neckline zone of the double bottom. As long as we hold above $65.50–65.80 on a daily close, the bullish thesis remains valid.
Market Structure Summary
- Double bottom anchored at $64.71
- POC: $65.88 acting as support
- 50% retracement: $71.86 key target if bulls take control
- 100% measured move: $79.01 potential swing target
- Short-term price action still bearish, but macro structure is shifting
Quant Bias
Right now, the data shows a strong confluence zone between $65.50–$66.00. We’re seeing prior demand, volume clustering, and macro structure all stacking here. That’s high-probability territory for mean reversion or trend continuation not collapse.
While short-term charts may still look weak, this is exactly the type of spot where weak hands get flushed before a strong trend resumes. If bulls reclaim $67.60 and close above $68.00 early this week, that’s your first sign this thing is loading.
Trade Setup Plan
- Swing Long (Primary Setup)
- Entry Zone: $65.50–66.00
- TP1: $68.33 (short-term fib & volume shelf)
- TP2: $71.86 (50% retracement of range)
- TP3: $79.00 (full double bottom target)
- Stop: Daily close below $64.50 = structure breaks
Scalp Short (Only if Monday Fakes Out)
- Entry: $67.60 (into fake out zone)
- TP: $66.80 / $66.50
- SL: Above $67.85
Treat as short-term only don’t overstay
Monday Game plan
Watch for a flush into $65.80, ideally with some wicks and basing on the 30m chart. If that happens and we see buyers defending the low with volume, that’s the cue to get long. The safer long comes on a reclaim of $67.60 with strong follow-through. If we open and trap above $67.50 but fail to hold it, classic short-term fade opportunity down to $66.50.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.