Crude Oil has been grinding higher within a clean rising wedge (bearish flag), forming within the aftermath of a strong sell-off. Price is now testing a key Intraday Fair Value Gap (1H FVG) inside a broader HTF Macro Supply Zone, while respecting a steep trend line of support.
This structure sets up a textbook decision point. Continuation toward macro liquidity or reversal and breakdown.
Bearish Setup (Primary Thesis)
Rejection off the Intraday FVG (1H) or Macro Supply Zone. Close below green trend line with momentum/volume
Bearish Entries:
Entry #1 (Aggressive): $69.90–$70.10 → wick rejection inside FVG
Entry #2 (Conservative): $68.20 → trendline break + close below
Stop Loss Options:
Tight SL: $70.80 (above intraday FVG)
Wide SL: $72.50 (above macro supply zone)
Bearish TPs:
TP1: $67.00 → channel low
TP2: $65.00 → mitigation zone
TP3: $64.00 → FVG fill + prior swing low (final target)
The Ideal setup: FVG rejection + trend line break + aggressive follow-through = hold for full breakdown.
Bullish Setup (Alternate Scenario)
Clean breakout + 1H/4H candle close above Intraday FVG. Break and retest of channel top as new support. Price holds above $70.50 with strength
Bullish Entry:
Breakout & retest at $70.10–$70.30
Stop Loss:
Below FVG/demand pocket: $68.30
Bullish TPs:
TP1: $72.50 → prior swing high
TP2: $74.00 → macro trendline test
TP3: $77.00 → macro liquidity sweep
Best setup: breakout + retest with increasing volume and no rejection at macro supply.
My Summary:
Bias. - Bearish (Primary)
Structure - Bearish flag within HTF downtrend
Price Action - Testing overhead supply + intraday FVG
Volatility - Constricted, ripe for breakout
Risk Level - Low-risk entries near supply or trend line
Model Tag - Mean Reversion Rejection / Momentum Breakdown
This is a high-probability setup with clear invalidation on both sides. Use a confirmation based approach to reduce drawdown and avoid fake outs. Plan your entries based on how price reacts at this decision zone. Be patient the cleanest trade may be on the second move, not the first. Happy Trading everyone.
This structure sets up a textbook decision point. Continuation toward macro liquidity or reversal and breakdown.
Bearish Setup (Primary Thesis)
Rejection off the Intraday FVG (1H) or Macro Supply Zone. Close below green trend line with momentum/volume
Bearish Entries:
Entry #1 (Aggressive): $69.90–$70.10 → wick rejection inside FVG
Entry #2 (Conservative): $68.20 → trendline break + close below
Stop Loss Options:
Tight SL: $70.80 (above intraday FVG)
Wide SL: $72.50 (above macro supply zone)
Bearish TPs:
TP1: $67.00 → channel low
TP2: $65.00 → mitigation zone
TP3: $64.00 → FVG fill + prior swing low (final target)
The Ideal setup: FVG rejection + trend line break + aggressive follow-through = hold for full breakdown.
Bullish Setup (Alternate Scenario)
Clean breakout + 1H/4H candle close above Intraday FVG. Break and retest of channel top as new support. Price holds above $70.50 with strength
Bullish Entry:
Breakout & retest at $70.10–$70.30
Stop Loss:
Below FVG/demand pocket: $68.30
Bullish TPs:
TP1: $72.50 → prior swing high
TP2: $74.00 → macro trendline test
TP3: $77.00 → macro liquidity sweep
Best setup: breakout + retest with increasing volume and no rejection at macro supply.
My Summary:
Bias. - Bearish (Primary)
Structure - Bearish flag within HTF downtrend
Price Action - Testing overhead supply + intraday FVG
Volatility - Constricted, ripe for breakout
Risk Level - Low-risk entries near supply or trend line
Model Tag - Mean Reversion Rejection / Momentum Breakdown
This is a high-probability setup with clear invalidation on both sides. Use a confirmation based approach to reduce drawdown and avoid fake outs. Plan your entries based on how price reacts at this decision zone. Be patient the cleanest trade may be on the second move, not the first. Happy Trading everyone.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.