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comment: Many gaps on different time frames and I only marked the ones from the daily. Next targets above for the bulls are 80 and the 2023-09 high at 82.91. I think we can see a futures gap up above 81 and then another huge pullback. Supply shock for Oil is still not there or we would not see the market pull back that much. Given the current macro risk we can only expect higher prices but the swings are too wild for me tbh.
current market cycle: bull trend but trading range on 1h tf
key levels: 67 - 83
bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side. Their only issue is that we are still seeing 5-10% intraday swings to both sides and only if the pull backs become smaller and we leave gaps behind, can we go meaningful higher and stay there. We have two open gaps on the daily chart but market would have to stay above 70 now to confirm them. 77 is the next target for the bulls which would be a higher high above the 2024-04 high.
Invalidation is below 70 - if we drop below, we most likely continue sideways inside the big range until we maybe get another big breakout above
bear case: US bombs on Iran. Interesting to see if we stay below 77 and move sideways. I can not see it but I obviously did not saw the 11% pullback on Monday as well. That was insane. Best bears can hope for is to move sideways and continue with the deep pullbacks. Bears can also make big money on these wild swings, which is not something seen in strong bull trends.
Invalidation is above 77
short term: Bullish but too cautious to trade it. Future gap ups were sold heavily and market has not found acceptance above 73 for the entire week. Still expecting 77 to get hit and there is no reason why we can’t see 80$ on oil over next 2 weeks.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-22: No bigger opinion other than “don’t be a bear here”. No idea if market can sustain the buying and stay above 70 for longer or even 80 for that matter. Too many big risks which will move the market big time.
comment: Many gaps on different time frames and I only marked the ones from the daily. Next targets above for the bulls are 80 and the 2023-09 high at 82.91. I think we can see a futures gap up above 81 and then another huge pullback. Supply shock for Oil is still not there or we would not see the market pull back that much. Given the current macro risk we can only expect higher prices but the swings are too wild for me tbh.
current market cycle: bull trend but trading range on 1h tf
key levels: 67 - 83
bull case: Bulls have all the arguments on their side. Their only issue is that we are still seeing 5-10% intraday swings to both sides and only if the pull backs become smaller and we leave gaps behind, can we go meaningful higher and stay there. We have two open gaps on the daily chart but market would have to stay above 70 now to confirm them. 77 is the next target for the bulls which would be a higher high above the 2024-04 high.
Invalidation is below 70 - if we drop below, we most likely continue sideways inside the big range until we maybe get another big breakout above
bear case: US bombs on Iran. Interesting to see if we stay below 77 and move sideways. I can not see it but I obviously did not saw the 11% pullback on Monday as well. That was insane. Best bears can hope for is to move sideways and continue with the deep pullbacks. Bears can also make big money on these wild swings, which is not something seen in strong bull trends.
Invalidation is above 77
short term: Bullish but too cautious to trade it. Future gap ups were sold heavily and market has not found acceptance above 73 for the entire week. Still expecting 77 to get hit and there is no reason why we can’t see 80$ on oil over next 2 weeks.
medium-long term - Update from 2025-06-22: No bigger opinion other than “don’t be a bear here”. No idea if market can sustain the buying and stay above 70 for longer or even 80 for that matter. Too many big risks which will move the market big time.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.