MGC is currently trading at 3,393.8, positioned at the 0% retracement of the recent leg from 3,510.2 down to current lows. The prior swing high at 3,510.2 marks the 100% Fib, with the 50% retracement at 3,451.18 acting as the mid-range pivot. Price action has been in a sustained downtrend since rejecting the 50% retracement level, with EMAs aligned bearish on the H1.
The Point of Control (POC) for this distribution is located at 3,492.0, which coincides with the upper value area, untested since the selloff.
Bias Assessment:
- Bearish Bias: 60% Probability
- Bullish Bias: 40% Probability
- Volatility Expectation: Moderate in Asian session, potential acceleration on key level breaks due to lower liquidity.
Bearish Scenario – Primary Path:
- Breakdown confirmation requires an H1 close 3,393.4 (0% Fib).
- Immediate target: 3,365.0 (local structural demand)
- Extended target: 3,350.0 (measured move completion / previous support cluster)
- Risk trigger: Failure to break 3,393 followed by reclaim of 3,410 negates short bias.
Bullish Scenario – Alternate Path:
- Defense of 3,393.4 with absorption will reclaim 3,410.0 (minor LVN).
- Upside target 1: 3,451.18 (50% Fib, key mid-range)
- Upside target 2: 3,492.0 (POC, high-volume resistance)
- Continuation trigger: Break and hold - 3,492 opens 3,510.2 retest.
Key Tokyo Session Levels:
- Support: 3,393.4 → 3,365.0 → 3,350.0
- Resistance: 3,410.0 → 3,451.18 → 3,492.0 → 3,510.2
Tokyo session tends to front-load stop hunts in the first 15–30 minutes. Prefer confirmation based entries at key level breaks with tight stops in low-liquidity conditions. Position sizing should be reduced relative to NY/London volatility profile.
Happy Trading
The Point of Control (POC) for this distribution is located at 3,492.0, which coincides with the upper value area, untested since the selloff.
Bias Assessment:
- Bearish Bias: 60% Probability
- Bullish Bias: 40% Probability
- Volatility Expectation: Moderate in Asian session, potential acceleration on key level breaks due to lower liquidity.
Bearish Scenario – Primary Path:
- Breakdown confirmation requires an H1 close 3,393.4 (0% Fib).
- Immediate target: 3,365.0 (local structural demand)
- Extended target: 3,350.0 (measured move completion / previous support cluster)
- Risk trigger: Failure to break 3,393 followed by reclaim of 3,410 negates short bias.
Bullish Scenario – Alternate Path:
- Defense of 3,393.4 with absorption will reclaim 3,410.0 (minor LVN).
- Upside target 1: 3,451.18 (50% Fib, key mid-range)
- Upside target 2: 3,492.0 (POC, high-volume resistance)
- Continuation trigger: Break and hold - 3,492 opens 3,510.2 retest.
Key Tokyo Session Levels:
- Support: 3,393.4 → 3,365.0 → 3,350.0
- Resistance: 3,410.0 → 3,451.18 → 3,492.0 → 3,510.2
Tokyo session tends to front-load stop hunts in the first 15–30 minutes. Prefer confirmation based entries at key level breaks with tight stops in low-liquidity conditions. Position sizing should be reduced relative to NY/London volatility profile.
Happy Trading
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.