The move on gold over the last two sessions has been clean, aggressive, and very telling. Price rallied hard into a well-defined supply zone between 3452 and 3460, which has acted as a sell-side magnet for the past three rotations.
We got five separate stabs into that zone, all failing to close with strength above 3444, a key breakdown level from earlier structure. Every wick above that line was absorbed classic signs of exhaustion and seller control. That was our trigger. Once price failed to hold above 3440, the sellers unloaded. And they didn’t nibble they dumped.
What followed was a single-leg, high-momentum liquidation straight into demand at 3386–3392, wiping out all intraday longs and resetting the board. Price tagged the PDL (3386.6) to the tick, then bounced not with strength, but with stability. No strong reversal candle, no V-bottom just a hold. What that tells us is: the market’s not ready to trend yet. It’s testing intent.
Now we’re coiling between key structural levels:
- Support below: 3386 (PDL), backed by previous demand zone
- Resistance above: 3405–3410 (micro range breakdown) and 3440 (PDH)
We also have a rising trend line support running up from the July 21 low price is currently sitting right on it. That’s your structural “last chance” for bulls. Break that with volume, and the entire bullish thesis collapses short term.
My Bias Breakdown
Bullish: If we get a reclaim above 3410, then I’d target a move back to 3430, with extension toward 3444 (PDH rejection area). That’s the clean rotation if bulls can generate follow-through.
Bearish: If 3385 breaks on strong momentumbthat opens up 3355–3360, which was the last untested demand from the July 18–19 base.
Neutral (Reactive) right now. This is a trap-heavy zone. Volume is thinning out, the trendline is being tested, and both sides are probing. You don’t want to front-run here. This isn’t trend continuation yet it’s a chop filter before the next directional leg.
Key Contextual Notes
3455–3460 supply was the origin of the last two major reversals this isn’t a random level. Expect traps and stop hunts up there again if price rotates back.
3386–3392 demand has been respected across multiple sessions but it's getting tested more frequently, which means it's weakening. If it breaks clean, the unwind could accelerate.
This is a two-sided market right now. It’s not breakout season, it’s reactionary playbook time. Let the levels guide the setup, not emotion.
Trade Plan (for experienced hands only)
- Long bias: Only on 30m close above 3410 with decent volume target 3430–3444. Stop under 3385. Risk tight; momentum must confirm.
- Short bias: Rejection candle or sweep/failure at 3440–3445 OR breakdown and retest of 3385 target 3355. Invalidation on reclaim above 3410.
This is where traders get chopped to pieces, in the middle of a post-liquidation coil sitting between unfinished business above and fragile demand below. Don’t be that trader. This is where you observe, wait for intent, then strike. Trading is about timing, not guessing. Let the next move come to you. We’re ready either way.
We got five separate stabs into that zone, all failing to close with strength above 3444, a key breakdown level from earlier structure. Every wick above that line was absorbed classic signs of exhaustion and seller control. That was our trigger. Once price failed to hold above 3440, the sellers unloaded. And they didn’t nibble they dumped.
What followed was a single-leg, high-momentum liquidation straight into demand at 3386–3392, wiping out all intraday longs and resetting the board. Price tagged the PDL (3386.6) to the tick, then bounced not with strength, but with stability. No strong reversal candle, no V-bottom just a hold. What that tells us is: the market’s not ready to trend yet. It’s testing intent.
Now we’re coiling between key structural levels:
- Support below: 3386 (PDL), backed by previous demand zone
- Resistance above: 3405–3410 (micro range breakdown) and 3440 (PDH)
We also have a rising trend line support running up from the July 21 low price is currently sitting right on it. That’s your structural “last chance” for bulls. Break that with volume, and the entire bullish thesis collapses short term.
My Bias Breakdown
Bullish: If we get a reclaim above 3410, then I’d target a move back to 3430, with extension toward 3444 (PDH rejection area). That’s the clean rotation if bulls can generate follow-through.
Bearish: If 3385 breaks on strong momentumbthat opens up 3355–3360, which was the last untested demand from the July 18–19 base.
Neutral (Reactive) right now. This is a trap-heavy zone. Volume is thinning out, the trendline is being tested, and both sides are probing. You don’t want to front-run here. This isn’t trend continuation yet it’s a chop filter before the next directional leg.
Key Contextual Notes
3455–3460 supply was the origin of the last two major reversals this isn’t a random level. Expect traps and stop hunts up there again if price rotates back.
3386–3392 demand has been respected across multiple sessions but it's getting tested more frequently, which means it's weakening. If it breaks clean, the unwind could accelerate.
This is a two-sided market right now. It’s not breakout season, it’s reactionary playbook time. Let the levels guide the setup, not emotion.
Trade Plan (for experienced hands only)
- Long bias: Only on 30m close above 3410 with decent volume target 3430–3444. Stop under 3385. Risk tight; momentum must confirm.
- Short bias: Rejection candle or sweep/failure at 3440–3445 OR breakdown and retest of 3385 target 3355. Invalidation on reclaim above 3410.
This is where traders get chopped to pieces, in the middle of a post-liquidation coil sitting between unfinished business above and fragile demand below. Don’t be that trader. This is where you observe, wait for intent, then strike. Trading is about timing, not guessing. Let the next move come to you. We’re ready either way.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.