Gold is setting up for a clean Tokyo session play, and the chart structure couldn’t be clearer. We’re currently sitting just above the 0% Fib at 3,452.1, after a controlled rotation down from the Point of Control at 3,488.5. That POC is key it’s where the highest traded volume of the session sits, meaning it’s a true decision point for buyers and sellers.
The 50% Fib at 3,481.3 lines up with a low volume node, which often acts as a springboard or rejection zone depending on who’s in control. Above that, we have a tight resistance cluster the POC, the psychological level at 3,500, and the 100% Fib at 3,510.5 all stack together, creating a major liquidity magnet if price can rally into it.
My primary bias into Tokyo is bearish (around 65% probability) unless we see a decisive breakout above 3,500. The preferred short setup is a push into 3,480–3,490 that fails to hold, with stops above 3,500 to stay safe from any thin session spikes. In that case, I’m targeting the session low at 3,452.1 first, then 3,435 for the second scale-out, and finally 3,420 if sellers press the advantage.
The alternative scenario, with a 35% probability, is a clean break and hold above 3,500, which flips bias long. In that case, the upside play would be to enter on a breakout retest, with stops back under the POC at 3,488, targeting the Fib high at 3,510.5 first and then 3,525 as a stretch target.
Tokyo tends to give one of two plays in gold: either a low volume POC retest that rejects and runs in the prevailing direction, or a sharp reclaim of a key level that forces an aggressive squeeze. Until proven otherwise, I’m watching 3,480–3,490 as the battleground and planning to short rejection wicks there, keeping risk tight and targets clearly defined.
The 50% Fib at 3,481.3 lines up with a low volume node, which often acts as a springboard or rejection zone depending on who’s in control. Above that, we have a tight resistance cluster the POC, the psychological level at 3,500, and the 100% Fib at 3,510.5 all stack together, creating a major liquidity magnet if price can rally into it.
My primary bias into Tokyo is bearish (around 65% probability) unless we see a decisive breakout above 3,500. The preferred short setup is a push into 3,480–3,490 that fails to hold, with stops above 3,500 to stay safe from any thin session spikes. In that case, I’m targeting the session low at 3,452.1 first, then 3,435 for the second scale-out, and finally 3,420 if sellers press the advantage.
The alternative scenario, with a 35% probability, is a clean break and hold above 3,500, which flips bias long. In that case, the upside play would be to enter on a breakout retest, with stops back under the POC at 3,488, targeting the Fib high at 3,510.5 first and then 3,525 as a stretch target.
Tokyo tends to give one of two plays in gold: either a low volume POC retest that rejects and runs in the prevailing direction, or a sharp reclaim of a key level that forces an aggressive squeeze. Until proven otherwise, I’m watching 3,480–3,490 as the battleground and planning to short rejection wicks there, keeping risk tight and targets clearly defined.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.