#202525 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaq e-mini futures
Good Day and I hope you are well.
comment: Full bear mode. Below 21600 we see 21000 come real fast and bulls can kiss 22000+ goodbye for months or years. Market has not found enough buyers above 22000 for a month and we not got another potential huge risk-off event which will likely be too much for big institutions to ignore. Print above 22000/22100 means I am wrong.
Last week my bearish thesis was that we go down from last Friday but since market did not touch the daily ema for so long, we got another week sideways. Now bears got help from orange face and I can not see them coming back from this as well.
current market cycle: trading range - daily close below 21500 confirms my thesis
key levels for next week: 20900 - 21800
bull case: Still no close below daily ema but markets failed to print higher highs for 2 weeks now. If we gap down and print below 21500, you can not hold long on hope. Got nothing for the bulls unless they print above 22000 again and even then we can only expect sideways.
Invalidation is below 21500
bear case: I have laid out my bear case for the markets enough by now. I see a move below 21500 as confirmation and especially a daily close below. 21000 is the next obvious target before we can expect a pullback. 20400ish would be my next target below since that is the big bull gap close.
Invalidation is above 22000/22100
short term: Full bear mode. Expecting a big futures gap down on open and a daily close below 21500 if not 21000, which would mean we are in W1 which could be a spike and then only move sideways before W3 comes around. I have drawn a probably path down over the next weeks.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-22: Daily close below 21500 is my validation for the new bear trend which has the first bigger target at 21000 but I think we will printed below 20000 again this year. Structure is obviously not yet bearish, so don’t be early if you want confirmation and can’t/won’t scale in to shorts higher. Getting into longer term shorts above 21500 seems like the banger trade right now.
comment: Full bear mode. Below 21600 we see 21000 come real fast and bulls can kiss 22000+ goodbye for months or years. Market has not found enough buyers above 22000 for a month and we not got another potential huge risk-off event which will likely be too much for big institutions to ignore. Print above 22000/22100 means I am wrong.
Last week my bearish thesis was that we go down from last Friday but since market did not touch the daily ema for so long, we got another week sideways. Now bears got help from orange face and I can not see them coming back from this as well.
current market cycle: trading range - daily close below 21500 confirms my thesis
key levels for next week: 20900 - 21800
bull case: Still no close below daily ema but markets failed to print higher highs for 2 weeks now. If we gap down and print below 21500, you can not hold long on hope. Got nothing for the bulls unless they print above 22000 again and even then we can only expect sideways.
Invalidation is below 21500
bear case: I have laid out my bear case for the markets enough by now. I see a move below 21500 as confirmation and especially a daily close below. 21000 is the next obvious target before we can expect a pullback. 20400ish would be my next target below since that is the big bull gap close.
Invalidation is above 22000/22100
short term: Full bear mode. Expecting a big futures gap down on open and a daily close below 21500 if not 21000, which would mean we are in W1 which could be a spike and then only move sideways before W3 comes around. I have drawn a probably path down over the next weeks.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-22: Daily close below 21500 is my validation for the new bear trend which has the first bigger target at 21000 but I think we will printed below 20000 again this year. Structure is obviously not yet bearish, so don’t be early if you want confirmation and can’t/won’t scale in to shorts higher. Getting into longer term shorts above 21500 seems like the banger trade right now.
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Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.