MNQ is hovering just under local highs after a textbook rally into a potential supply shelf. Price is compressing into a wedge between short-term resistance and dynamic trend line support. This is where the market reveals its hand either we break clean and run, or we roll over and unwind the entire move.
Here’s my full breakdown including swing entries, scalp options, confluence layers, and what I’m watching through the Tokyo, London, and NY sessions.
Primary trend: Bullish
Current condition: Compression under resistance (23,100 zone)
Market posture: Still within the ascending channel, but showing signs of indecision
We’re stacked on top of well-respected demand levels and riding a well-tested trend line. But price has now spent 5 sessions ranging just under short-term supply, and that opens up both breakout and breakdown scenarios depending on how it reacts in this key zone.
BULLISH SCENARIO — Trend Continuation
This play assumes the channel holds and buyers defend the 22,700 breaker block.
Primary Entry: 22,700 (Key reclaim level / breaker block)
Aggressive Entry: 22,950 (early reaction from structure front-run)
TP1: 23,500 (equal highs and channel extension)
TP2: 24,000 (clean trend extension target)
SL: 22,000 (below trend line and deep value failure)
Confluences:
Breaker block support from July 3 demand leg
Anchored VWAP from July 7 sits just above entry zone
Perfect alignment with channel midpoint and dynamic support
Buyers defended 22,700 multiple times during NY and London sessions
Macro still favouring tech risk-on
This is the continuation play. If 22,700 holds, I expect a swift push through supply with high reward potential.
BEARISH SCENARIO — Structural Breakdown
This play assumes the trend line and 22,700 level give way, confirming a change in structure.
Trigger: Clean 15m or 30m close below 22,700 and no buyer reclaim
Entry on Retest: 22,680–22,700 zone after breakdown
TP1: 22,200 (mid-trend demand base)
TP2: 21,900 (deep value demand zone)
SL: Above 22,800 (back inside structure = idea invalid)
Confluences:
Overhead supply has held 4+ sessions
Multiple liquidity sweeps above 23,100 with no follow-through
Momentum divergence + distribution signs on 5m-15m
London session often traps longs just before breakdowns
This isn’t about calling tops it’s about recognising when support fails. If 22,700 goes, the dominoes start falling.
Scalper Setup (Tokyo/London Focus)
For intraday traders hunting reactive entries with tight stops.
Short Idea:
Setup: Price sweeps into 23,090–23,130 zone during low liquidity (Tokyo/London premarket)
Trigger: Rejection wick or bearish engulfing on 5m–15m
TP: 22,950 or 22,700
SL: 23,150
Long Idea:
Setup: Quick drop into 22,950–22,900 front-run zone (pre-NY)
Trigger: Bullish engulfing or delta flip
TP: 23,100–23,200
SL: 22,850
Chart Structure Summary:
23,090–23,130 Short-Term Supply, Resistance shelf, range ceiling
22,700–22,750 Breaker Block Key structure to hold for bulls
22,200–22,400 Mid Demand Base, Trend structure, good R/R long
21,900–22,050 Deep Value Demand, Swing long zone, last line for bulls
Strategy Notes:
Use 15m for structure, 5m for entry, and 1H to confirm trend
Volume delta and order flow helps confirm traps/sweeps
Watch VWAP if price holds above, bias remains up
Don’t trade blindly into supply without confirmation let it reject or break
This isn’t just a supply test it’s a decision point for the next 300+ ticks.
The market is either:
Absorbing above demand and about to explode, or slowly distributing before a trend break.
As always don’t marry a bias. Let the levels do the talking. React, don’t predict. Let me know in the comments how you’re planning to play this.
Here’s my full breakdown including swing entries, scalp options, confluence layers, and what I’m watching through the Tokyo, London, and NY sessions.
Primary trend: Bullish
Current condition: Compression under resistance (23,100 zone)
Market posture: Still within the ascending channel, but showing signs of indecision
We’re stacked on top of well-respected demand levels and riding a well-tested trend line. But price has now spent 5 sessions ranging just under short-term supply, and that opens up both breakout and breakdown scenarios depending on how it reacts in this key zone.
BULLISH SCENARIO — Trend Continuation
This play assumes the channel holds and buyers defend the 22,700 breaker block.
Primary Entry: 22,700 (Key reclaim level / breaker block)
Aggressive Entry: 22,950 (early reaction from structure front-run)
TP1: 23,500 (equal highs and channel extension)
TP2: 24,000 (clean trend extension target)
SL: 22,000 (below trend line and deep value failure)
Confluences:
Breaker block support from July 3 demand leg
Anchored VWAP from July 7 sits just above entry zone
Perfect alignment with channel midpoint and dynamic support
Buyers defended 22,700 multiple times during NY and London sessions
Macro still favouring tech risk-on
This is the continuation play. If 22,700 holds, I expect a swift push through supply with high reward potential.
BEARISH SCENARIO — Structural Breakdown
This play assumes the trend line and 22,700 level give way, confirming a change in structure.
Trigger: Clean 15m or 30m close below 22,700 and no buyer reclaim
Entry on Retest: 22,680–22,700 zone after breakdown
TP1: 22,200 (mid-trend demand base)
TP2: 21,900 (deep value demand zone)
SL: Above 22,800 (back inside structure = idea invalid)
Confluences:
Overhead supply has held 4+ sessions
Multiple liquidity sweeps above 23,100 with no follow-through
Momentum divergence + distribution signs on 5m-15m
London session often traps longs just before breakdowns
This isn’t about calling tops it’s about recognising when support fails. If 22,700 goes, the dominoes start falling.
Scalper Setup (Tokyo/London Focus)
For intraday traders hunting reactive entries with tight stops.
Short Idea:
Setup: Price sweeps into 23,090–23,130 zone during low liquidity (Tokyo/London premarket)
Trigger: Rejection wick or bearish engulfing on 5m–15m
TP: 22,950 or 22,700
SL: 23,150
Long Idea:
Setup: Quick drop into 22,950–22,900 front-run zone (pre-NY)
Trigger: Bullish engulfing or delta flip
TP: 23,100–23,200
SL: 22,850
Chart Structure Summary:
23,090–23,130 Short-Term Supply, Resistance shelf, range ceiling
22,700–22,750 Breaker Block Key structure to hold for bulls
22,200–22,400 Mid Demand Base, Trend structure, good R/R long
21,900–22,050 Deep Value Demand, Swing long zone, last line for bulls
Strategy Notes:
Use 15m for structure, 5m for entry, and 1H to confirm trend
Volume delta and order flow helps confirm traps/sweeps
Watch VWAP if price holds above, bias remains up
Don’t trade blindly into supply without confirmation let it reject or break
This isn’t just a supply test it’s a decision point for the next 300+ ticks.
The market is either:
Absorbing above demand and about to explode, or slowly distributing before a trend break.
As always don’t marry a bias. Let the levels do the talking. React, don’t predict. Let me know in the comments how you’re planning to play this.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.