Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Big up, big down, big confusion. Market rallies 500 points yesterday and today we get a late bear breakout and close below 22000. Traps on both sides and I am not believing in bear strength what so ever. I see this as a triangle and 22000 is the middle. Chop chop.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 21700 - 22300
bull case: Bulls want to stay above 21900 and print a higher low to then re-test 22300. Today they were weak and let the bears close below 22000 which was unexpected, giving yesterday’s bullishness. Tomorrow we have FOMC and I doubt market can move far from 22000 tomorrow. Any longs closer to 21800 make sense.
Invalidation is below 21680.
bear case: Bears left behind a gap up to 22015 but I doubt it can stay open. We have to decent trend lines below us and bears would need to break strongly below 21900 to try and go for 800 or even 700. Bears do not have any arguments to go below 21700 so I won’t make up any. That doesn’t mean it can not happen but it’s unlikely.
Invalidation is above 22230.
short term: Completely neutral around 22000. Only interested in longs below 21900 and shorts closer to 22100.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-06-15: Daily close below 21450 is my validation for the new bear trend which has the first bigger target at 21000 but I think we will printed below 20000 again this year. Structure is obviously not yet bearish, so don’t be early if you want confirmation and can’t/won’t scale in to shorts higher.
trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Clear range 22000 - 22100 and the late bear breakout was ok if you made your money before. I do think it was unusual that we did not close the gap to y close 22176.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.