Molina has a safe and clean looking chart. I don't see price getting much below the marked level of ~$250, if it even goes there.
The longer it consolidates the lesser the chance of price going there which I think is already the case here (as the consolidation 'washes' out the strength of the downtrend).
From here to $250 is a ~17% drop, meaning low risk meaning higher position size.
As always no investment advice, but I see this platform a bit like my investment diary so you already now what I'm going to do.
The longer it consolidates the lesser the chance of price going there which I think is already the case here (as the consolidation 'washes' out the strength of the downtrend).
From here to $250 is a ~17% drop, meaning low risk meaning higher position size.
As always no investment advice, but I see this platform a bit like my investment diary so you already now what I'm going to do.
Note
Added here ($243.7).Note
I'm disappointed (again) in my thought process here:Yes, the chart looks quite clean.
Yes, there's a chance that price doesn't make the drop.
But this is definitely a 50/50.
Why is it a 50/50?
Because the trade isn't based on shii:
Either you buy the level and hope it'll hold or you buy somewhere higher up supported with an SFP at the lows.
Here I just bought somewhere higher up without an SFP at the lows.
"The longer it consolidates the lesser the chance of price going there which I think is already the case here (as the consolidation 'washes' out the strength of the downtrend)." ------> this definitely is a dynamic but no valid argument to make the trade 60/40 in your favor.
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Now you get the drop and I just feel a fool.
I can take the hit financially but mentally I just can't have it.
This naïve 50/50 thing isn't who I want to be. I really would rather miss the investment than look a fool. How can you be a fool if you miss the investment when there was never a valid reason to enter the trade? There would be no trade as it was just a 50/50.
So, I have to keep in mind who I want to be when I buy something. Do I really want to be the guy that buys somewhere in between and crosses his fingers hoping it works out?
No, I really don't.
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For me, for stocks, it's either:
You buy the level;
Or,
You buy higher up when you have an SFP at the lows and you think there's no resistance anymore (you look for the structure above the SFP which you think is the relevant one (often with an SFP at the highs of the structure) and price now has pushed above this structure, thus hopefully no resistance).
I really need to ask myself who I want to be before I buy something; it will counter the naïve optimism.
Molina is a good example for this: this chart looks so innocent but you still wake up with the pre-market -15%...
Technical ----------> Fiancial vs Technical = order size ------------> Mental ---------> Mental good? Who am I when I buy here? Good mental = trade
When trading BTC it's just all technical. But when I'm going about investments there is no SL so I get naïvely optimistic -----------> I only spend time on what happens on the financial side if the 'doomscenario' happens (can I take the hit financially?) but I don't spend time on the mental side if the the doomscenario happens (was it the right decision to enter? If yes -----> no mental hit, but if no -----> big mental hit).
If I take care of the mental, then this will also automatically transfer over to the technical, leading to a better technical conlusion.
Ooh Molina.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.