🧠 Market Context:
Following the Trump tariff announcement, risk-off sentiment is dominating tech. MSFT, while usually defensive within mega-cap tech, has cracked below its short-term HVL and is now testing a key gamma pivot zone at $370, right where the PUT Support is clustered.
📊 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
Structure:
* Price has formed a lower high and broke down from the $377.50 HVL area.
* Multiple rejections near $387–390, which aligns with GEX call resistance.
* It's now hugging $370, a key support level that could turn into a breakdown zone if breached.
Levels:
* Support:
* 🔹 $370 = PUT Support (Gamma Cluster)
* 🔹 $367.24 = recent low
* 🔹 Below $367, air pocket to $360 zone
* Resistance:
* 🔺 $375 = minor supply & failed bounce spot
* 🔺 $377.50 = HVL
* 🔺 $385–390 = heavy call resistance
Indicators:
* Elevated selling volume on each lower high suggests distribution.
* If $370 fails to hold, expect continuation toward $367 and possibly $360.
🔥 GEX & Options Flow Analysis
GEX Map:
* GEX: 🔴🔴🔴 → Dealers short gamma below $375
* Put Support:
* $370 = Highest Gamma PUT Support
* $367.24 = Real market low from March 28–29 selloff
* Call Walls:
* $385–390 = Dealer sell zone
* $392 = Gamma ceiling
* $396 = Major rejection level from recent highs
Options Oscillator:
* IVR 71.2 → Traders are buying volatility, indicating fear.
* IVx avg 32.3 vs IVx 3.32% → Still rising vol, near-term bearish bias
* PUT$ 10% → Surprisingly low, but this could reflect late hedging, not bullishness.
🧭 Trade Scenarios
🐻 Bearish Breakdown:
* Entry: Break and close below $370
* Target: $367 → $360
* Stop: $374 (tight risk control)
* Confirmation: Watch SPY and QQQ breakdowns in sync.
🐂 Bullish Gamma Bounce:
* Entry: Hold above $370 + reclaim $375
* Target: $385 → $390 (scalp target)
* Stop: Close under $369
🧠 Summary:
MSFT is hanging by a thread — the $370 zone is the battle line. GEX shows it as a PUT-heavy support, but with dealers short gamma, any break could cascade into forced sell hedging.
A bounce could trigger a dead cat rally toward $385, but bulls will need to reclaim $377.50 to make that happen.
⚔️ Trade Idea:
Buy $365P (1-week expiry) if $370 breaks with volume Buy $385C only on confirmed reclaim of $377.50 + strength in QQQ
This is a dealer-controlled zone, so price will likely whip around until gamma flips.
Disclaimer: This breakdown is for educational purposes only. Always trade with proper risk management and do your own research.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.