🔎 Technical Analysis (TA) – Intraday Outlook
Current Price: ~$389.27
* MSFT is pulling back after making a local high near 396.31.
* The price is now sitting just above a demand block, marked by previous CHoCH and BOS levels, signaling a potential bounce zone.
* Structure is showing early signs of weakness, but key support at 382-385 is still intact.
Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish crossover with histogram declining — watch for a potential shift if buyers step in at support.
* Stoch RSI: Oversold, hinting at possible bounce if support holds.
Key Support Zones:
* 385 → Critical intraday support with 2nd PUT Wall.
* 382.87 → High confidence PUT level.
* 376.85 → Strong PUT support and bottom of the SMC zone (high reward bounce setup if defended).
Resistance Zones:
* 392.59 → Local rejection level.
* 396.31 → Key intraday resistance.
* 400 → Highest Positive NetGEX & Gamma Wall (major resistance zone).
* 405 → 2nd CALL Wall.
🧠 GEX & Options Flow Analysis (TanukiTrade GEX Zones)
* GEX Sentiment: 🟢🔴🟢 (Mixed — but put wall support is closer, bullish if held)
* IV Rank (IVR): 31.3
* IVx avg: 26.1 → Options pricing not overly volatile
* PUT$%: 9.6% – Moderate, suggesting dealers may provide support on dips
* Gamma Wall: At 400, major resistance
* PUT Support: At 380 with strong negative GEX (key defensive zone)
* HVL Cluster: Near 390 (May expiry), could pin price today if no catalyst.
🛠️ Trade Scenarios
📈 Bullish Setup – Support Bounce from 385 or 382
* Price bounces from key SMC demand zone and starts reclaiming 390+
* Entry: 386–387 zone reclaim + volume
* Target 1: 392
* Target 2: 396
* Target 3: 400
* Stop-Loss: Below 382.5
* Options Play:
* Long Apr 12 $390 Calls on bounce confirmation.
* Sell $385 Puts if confident in bounce continuation.
📉 Bearish Setup – Breakdown of 382
* If support fails at 382, expect a retest of 376.85 PUT support.
* Entry: Break below 382 with momentum
* Target 1: 376.85
* Target 2: 374 (liquidity sweep zone)
* Stop-Loss: Above 385.5
* Options Play:
* Long Apr 12 $380 Puts
* Debit Spread: Buy $385 Put / Sell $380 Put
🧭 Final Thoughts & Bias
* Short-Term Bias: Neutral → Leaning bullish if 382-385 holds
* GEX Context: Gamma compression is possible between 382-392 – breakout above or breakdown below will trigger expansion.
* Intraday Plan:
* Watch for bounce at 385 zone.
* Flip bearish only below 382 with strong volume.
* If 392.5 breaks, bulls may charge back toward 396-400 zone.
📛 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage risk.
Current Price: ~$389.27
* MSFT is pulling back after making a local high near 396.31.
* The price is now sitting just above a demand block, marked by previous CHoCH and BOS levels, signaling a potential bounce zone.
* Structure is showing early signs of weakness, but key support at 382-385 is still intact.
Indicators:
* MACD: Bearish crossover with histogram declining — watch for a potential shift if buyers step in at support.
* Stoch RSI: Oversold, hinting at possible bounce if support holds.
Key Support Zones:
* 385 → Critical intraday support with 2nd PUT Wall.
* 382.87 → High confidence PUT level.
* 376.85 → Strong PUT support and bottom of the SMC zone (high reward bounce setup if defended).
Resistance Zones:
* 392.59 → Local rejection level.
* 396.31 → Key intraday resistance.
* 400 → Highest Positive NetGEX & Gamma Wall (major resistance zone).
* 405 → 2nd CALL Wall.
🧠 GEX & Options Flow Analysis (TanukiTrade GEX Zones)
* GEX Sentiment: 🟢🔴🟢 (Mixed — but put wall support is closer, bullish if held)
* IV Rank (IVR): 31.3
* IVx avg: 26.1 → Options pricing not overly volatile
* PUT$%: 9.6% – Moderate, suggesting dealers may provide support on dips
* Gamma Wall: At 400, major resistance
* PUT Support: At 380 with strong negative GEX (key defensive zone)
* HVL Cluster: Near 390 (May expiry), could pin price today if no catalyst.
🛠️ Trade Scenarios
📈 Bullish Setup – Support Bounce from 385 or 382
* Price bounces from key SMC demand zone and starts reclaiming 390+
* Entry: 386–387 zone reclaim + volume
* Target 1: 392
* Target 2: 396
* Target 3: 400
* Stop-Loss: Below 382.5
* Options Play:
* Long Apr 12 $390 Calls on bounce confirmation.
* Sell $385 Puts if confident in bounce continuation.
📉 Bearish Setup – Breakdown of 382
* If support fails at 382, expect a retest of 376.85 PUT support.
* Entry: Break below 382 with momentum
* Target 1: 376.85
* Target 2: 374 (liquidity sweep zone)
* Stop-Loss: Above 385.5
* Options Play:
* Long Apr 12 $380 Puts
* Debit Spread: Buy $385 Put / Sell $380 Put
🧭 Final Thoughts & Bias
* Short-Term Bias: Neutral → Leaning bullish if 382-385 holds
* GEX Context: Gamma compression is possible between 382-392 – breakout above or breakdown below will trigger expansion.
* Intraday Plan:
* Watch for bounce at 385 zone.
* Flip bearish only below 382 with strong volume.
* If 392.5 breaks, bulls may charge back toward 396-400 zone.
📛 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage risk.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.