🧠 Technical Analysis (1H Chart Insight)
Microsoft (MSFT) is breaking down from a symmetrical triangle on the 1-hour chart, signaling bearish continuation after last week’s bounce attempt failed at $539. Price has been rejecting trendline resistance and is now coiling tightly under $527 — a major pivot zone.
* Structure: Bearish CHoCH confirmed; clean lower highs + lower lows forming.
* Trendline Break: Bearish breakdown under triangle.
* MACD: Bearish momentum increasing — histogram deepening, signal lines widening apart.
* Stoch RSI: Bearish crossover near overbought zone and turning down = more downside likely.
Support Zone to Watch:
* $525.17 → previous local support
* $520.84 → last defense before potential acceleration lower
Resistance to Break:
* $527.75 → old S/R flip
* $539.09 → invalidation of bearish thesis if reclaimed with volume
🧲 GEX & Options Sentiment (Aug 8 OPEX Focus)
The GEX map shows bearish tilt into the $520 zone:
* CALL Walls:
* $533.5–535 (63–73%) → capped any upside moves
* PUT Walls:
* $525 (HVL) → immediate pressure zone
* $520 → highest negative GEX, dealers likely to short-delta hedge below this
* $515 → strong put wall (-34.4%)
Gamma Exposure (GEX) Sentiment:
* IVR: 5.5 (very low)
* IVx Avg: 21.2
* Put flow: 10.6% → still light, but GEX is negative
* GEX < 520 → opens door for faster move lower
🧭 Trade Plan
📉 Bearish Scenario:
* Entry: Below $525 breakdown
* Target: $520 → $515
* Stop: Above $528
📈 Bullish Reversal Setup:
* Entry: Break and reclaim $528 with volume
* Target: $533.50 → $539
* Stop: Under $525
📌 This is a textbook momentum squeeze below the HVL line. Reclaim $527.75 and this gets neutralized fast. Stay nimble!
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research before trading.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.