8/1/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
MSTR
Selling spot and buying MSTR
- keeping it (purposefully) short today for everyone's benefit
- sold a bit of
OBTC (which is nearly 15% off spot, e.g. $100k/BTC) to buy MSTR MSD exposure here
- why?
- 1.6x mNAV is lowest it's been (nearly ever in current BTC move)
- Saylor not going to hit the ATM sub 2.5x, will run it hot
- Latest product further augments this runway to value accretion
- BTC still remains REALLY well bid in this current tape
- So math is like this
- ROE of BTC in "conservative" sense is 25%
- Kc (cost of capital) for Strategy is 10% again (conservative, it's really sub 10%)
- so ROE/Kc (without growth) = 2.5x book.
- A real ROE for BTC (remember this is permanent capital he's tapping, so no asset-liability mis-match) is 35%
- True Kc for this is sub 10%, but let's still say 10%. that's 3.5x book.
Therefore let's even say 2x book (below both of the above) is 2/1.6 = 25% upside. If/do you think that BTC can go back to low 90s, ofc this might contract further (the 1.6x) but at the same time, you have EVEN higher implied ROE and R/R only improves.
So at a minimum, i'd guess your R/R is "balanced" here in the most conservative scenarios. And if we do get BTC bid, this will rocket at this stage thru YE and far exceed px appreciation of it's BTC pair.
Ok that was longer than I intended. Felt important to convey math and up/downside parameters.
Be well. Everyone loses money in correlation 1. Just make sure you find the betas that have the first bids. Right now that's BTC and some quality names doing 6-7% fcf yields and growing.
I like
OBTC (adding fuel w/ my MSTR calls)
NXT
DECK
LULU
FI
<3
V
MSTRSelling spot and buying MSTR
- keeping it (purposefully) short today for everyone's benefit
- sold a bit of
OBTC (which is nearly 15% off spot, e.g. $100k/BTC) to buy MSTR MSD exposure here- why?
- 1.6x mNAV is lowest it's been (nearly ever in current BTC move)
- Saylor not going to hit the ATM sub 2.5x, will run it hot
- Latest product further augments this runway to value accretion
- BTC still remains REALLY well bid in this current tape
- So math is like this
- ROE of BTC in "conservative" sense is 25%
- Kc (cost of capital) for Strategy is 10% again (conservative, it's really sub 10%)
- so ROE/Kc (without growth) = 2.5x book.
- A real ROE for BTC (remember this is permanent capital he's tapping, so no asset-liability mis-match) is 35%
- True Kc for this is sub 10%, but let's still say 10%. that's 3.5x book.
Therefore let's even say 2x book (below both of the above) is 2/1.6 = 25% upside. If/do you think that BTC can go back to low 90s, ofc this might contract further (the 1.6x) but at the same time, you have EVEN higher implied ROE and R/R only improves.
So at a minimum, i'd guess your R/R is "balanced" here in the most conservative scenarios. And if we do get BTC bid, this will rocket at this stage thru YE and far exceed px appreciation of it's BTC pair.
Ok that was longer than I intended. Felt important to convey math and up/downside parameters.
Be well. Everyone loses money in correlation 1. Just make sure you find the betas that have the first bids. Right now that's BTC and some quality names doing 6-7% fcf yields and growing.
I like
OBTC (adding fuel w/ my MSTR calls)NXTDECKLULUFI<3
V
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.