In my view, it’s time to sell the Nasdaq. We’ve reached new highs, and last month was the best May in over 30 years — statistically, this alone calls for caution.
Even though the economy appears strong on the surface, and market fears around DAS and Trump have faded, investors are ignoring the real issue: U.S. public debt. This is the elephant in the room.
With recent labor data pointing toward potential weakness, the risk of a major recession is increasing. If employment starts to deteriorate, the U.S. won’t be able to refinance its ever-growing debt. Trillions in interest payments are coming due soon — around $3 trillion, which is equivalent to the entire Italian public debt. The U.S. needs to roll over roughly a third of its debt, and fast.
Given all this, I don’t see any solid reason to be buying Nasdaq at current levels. It’s rallied extremely fast, and I see a retracement toward 20,000 as a realistic scenario — potentially even lower if upcoming economic data disappoints.
Even though the economy appears strong on the surface, and market fears around DAS and Trump have faded, investors are ignoring the real issue: U.S. public debt. This is the elephant in the room.
With recent labor data pointing toward potential weakness, the risk of a major recession is increasing. If employment starts to deteriorate, the U.S. won’t be able to refinance its ever-growing debt. Trillions in interest payments are coming due soon — around $3 trillion, which is equivalent to the entire Italian public debt. The U.S. needs to roll over roughly a third of its debt, and fast.
Given all this, I don’t see any solid reason to be buying Nasdaq at current levels. It’s rallied extremely fast, and I see a retracement toward 20,000 as a realistic scenario — potentially even lower if upcoming economic data disappoints.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.