I’ve initiated a long on Natural Gas from weekly structure. Price has rotated inside this area since ’23 and is now reacting at a confluence of trendline support + prior demand. The plan is to hold into Q4, when seasonality (heating demand + potential hurricane/LNG disruptions) often provides upside tailwinds. Risk is defined on the weekly chart; I’ll manage around swings and let the position work.
Technicals (Weekly)
• Range base reclaimed: Price is bouncing from the same 2023–2024 accumulation zone (roughly 2.5–3.0).
• Multi-touch trendline support: Current candle is reacting at the rising base trendline; wicks show responsive buying.
• Structure targets: First objective is a move back into mid-range supply; extension aims toward the upper band shown on the chart.
Fundamentals Supporting Long Bias
• Seasonality: Q4 typically brings rising Heating Degree Days across the Northern Hemisphere; winter risk premia often get priced ahead of the draw season.
• LNG pull: Ongoing ramp in global LNG demand + incremental U.S. export capacity tends to tighten the domestic balance on cold forecasts or unplanned outages elsewhere.
• Supply discipline: Gas rig counts have lagged after the 2024 price slump; that slower supply response can tighten later-year balances if weather cooperates.
• Weather & Gulf risk: Peak hurricane season can interrupt Gulf production and processing, periodically supporting price.
• Europe draw season: As EU storage transitions from injection to draws, import needs rise, keeping a bid under seaborne gas.
Trade Plan:
• Entry: From weekly support (see chart).
• Management: Trail below fresh higher lows on the daily; take partials at fib/structure levels; let a runner target the upper band if momentum broadens.
What Breaks the Thesis
• A persistently warm Q4, outsized storage overhang into winter, major LNG outages/delays, or a renewed surge in production that swamps demand.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Technicals (Weekly)
• Range base reclaimed: Price is bouncing from the same 2023–2024 accumulation zone (roughly 2.5–3.0).
• Multi-touch trendline support: Current candle is reacting at the rising base trendline; wicks show responsive buying.
• Structure targets: First objective is a move back into mid-range supply; extension aims toward the upper band shown on the chart.
Fundamentals Supporting Long Bias
• Seasonality: Q4 typically brings rising Heating Degree Days across the Northern Hemisphere; winter risk premia often get priced ahead of the draw season.
• LNG pull: Ongoing ramp in global LNG demand + incremental U.S. export capacity tends to tighten the domestic balance on cold forecasts or unplanned outages elsewhere.
• Supply discipline: Gas rig counts have lagged after the 2024 price slump; that slower supply response can tighten later-year balances if weather cooperates.
• Weather & Gulf risk: Peak hurricane season can interrupt Gulf production and processing, periodically supporting price.
• Europe draw season: As EU storage transitions from injection to draws, import needs rise, keeping a bid under seaborne gas.
Trade Plan:
• Entry: From weekly support (see chart).
• Management: Trail below fresh higher lows on the daily; take partials at fib/structure levels; let a runner target the upper band if momentum broadens.
What Breaks the Thesis
• A persistently warm Q4, outsized storage overhang into winter, major LNG outages/delays, or a renewed surge in production that swamps demand.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.