Newmont's recent price action, combined with the strength in gold, is starting to flash a familiar pattern — one that, historically, has preceded major rallies. With gold trading firmly above $2,500/oz and Newmont delivering strong free cash flow ($1.2B in Q1), the fundamental backdrop couldn’t be more supportive. This is no longer a “cheap optionality” gold miner — it’s leaner, focused on Tier 1 assets, and finally starting to act like the cash-generating machine it is.
From a technical standpoint, the breakout above the $48–$50 resistance zone was a key moment. There's now very little historical supply between current levels and the $80–85 range, and beyond that — open air until the psychologically charged $100 level. The current setup could be interpreted as either a classic cup and handle or an inverse head and shoulders pattern. In both cases, the structure targets a move of roughly +74% from the breakout — aligning almost perfectly with what history suggests.
Zooming out, Newmont has just completed a sixth historical breakout from long-term consolidation — following similar ones in 1979, 1986, 2001, 2016, 2019, and now again in March 2025. Each of those previous breakouts was accompanied by a confirmed bullish crossover in the 3-Year Distance % from Moving Average (MA), where price momentum pushed the indicator decisively above the zero line. The five prior rallies saw NEM increase by 156%, 302%, 208%, 63%, and 112% respectively.
Given that this time the breakout comes above all-time highs, the setup feels even stronger — and the path to $100 looks not only feasible, but statistically probable. The presence of a powerful long-term base, macro tailwinds, and renewed institutional interest in gold miners all point in the same direction.
If this move plays out like previous cycles, Newmont won’t just grind higher — it could rerate entirely, especially if capital rotation flows back into large-cap gold producers. Keep in mind: this is the largest publicly traded gold miner, with a robust balance sheet and solid dividend, in an environment where gold is hitting nominal records and fiat credibility is under pressure.
📈 Watch price behavior as it approaches $80–85 — a successful retest and continuation would make the $100 target all the more compelling.
Let me know your thoughts — are institutions coming back to the gold miners, or will momentum continue favoring the smaller silver plays and explorers?
From a technical standpoint, the breakout above the $48–$50 resistance zone was a key moment. There's now very little historical supply between current levels and the $80–85 range, and beyond that — open air until the psychologically charged $100 level. The current setup could be interpreted as either a classic cup and handle or an inverse head and shoulders pattern. In both cases, the structure targets a move of roughly +74% from the breakout — aligning almost perfectly with what history suggests.
Zooming out, Newmont has just completed a sixth historical breakout from long-term consolidation — following similar ones in 1979, 1986, 2001, 2016, 2019, and now again in March 2025. Each of those previous breakouts was accompanied by a confirmed bullish crossover in the 3-Year Distance % from Moving Average (MA), where price momentum pushed the indicator decisively above the zero line. The five prior rallies saw NEM increase by 156%, 302%, 208%, 63%, and 112% respectively.
Given that this time the breakout comes above all-time highs, the setup feels even stronger — and the path to $100 looks not only feasible, but statistically probable. The presence of a powerful long-term base, macro tailwinds, and renewed institutional interest in gold miners all point in the same direction.
If this move plays out like previous cycles, Newmont won’t just grind higher — it could rerate entirely, especially if capital rotation flows back into large-cap gold producers. Keep in mind: this is the largest publicly traded gold miner, with a robust balance sheet and solid dividend, in an environment where gold is hitting nominal records and fiat credibility is under pressure.
📈 Watch price behavior as it approaches $80–85 — a successful retest and continuation would make the $100 target all the more compelling.
Let me know your thoughts — are institutions coming back to the gold miners, or will momentum continue favoring the smaller silver plays and explorers?
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.