Updated

Netflix earnings after the bell

NFLX Q4 December 2022 earnings are today 1/19 at 4pm. Netflix (NFLX) reported Q3 September 2022 earnings of $3.10 per share on revenue of $7.9 billion. The consensus earnings estimate was $2.11 per share on revenue of $7.8 billion. Revenue grew 5.9% on a year-over-year basis. The company said it expects Q4 earnings of approximately $0.36 per share on revenue of approximately $7.78 billion. NFLX technicals are bearish currently and it's options data is slightly bearish from neutral. I wouldn't be surprised if there's a muted downside move resulting in an IV crush for options premium tomorrow morning. Then again it can also be hedging from memory of its April 19th post market crash. It's basically a crap shoot until earnings are publicly released. Here's levels on the 1 day chart:

4th Quarter December 2022 Consensus:
EPS = $0.46
Revenue = $7.82 B

SMA200 = $245

VWMA 20 TTCATR(beta):
top = $358
R3 = $346
R2 = $334
R1 = $321
pivot = $309
S1 = $297
S2 = $284
S3 = $272
bottom = $260

1/20/23 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 82,702
Call Volume Total 68,085
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.21
Put Open Interest Total 284,116
Call Open Interest Total 268,671
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.06

2/17/23 expiry options data:
Put Volume Total 11,401
Call Volume Total 8,160
Put/Call Volume Ratio 1.40
Put Open Interest Total 50,491
Call Open Interest Total 40,584
Put/Call Open Interest Ratio 1.24

Note

NFLX earnings idea: neutral IV crush position / major move hedge

buy 1/20 expiry 350 call
buy 1/27 expiry 340 call
sell 1/27 expiry 320 call
sell 1/27 expiry 320 put
buy 1/27 expiry 300 put
buy 1/20 expiry 290 put

or do nothing until tomorrow.

*options use 100x leverage you could lose everything*

There are many types of options trading strategies and positions, simple to sophisticated & hybrids. I group them into theta, delta or mix strategies and bull, bear or neutral positions. There's a buy side and sell side to every trade. If you check the open interest (OI), you can see how liquid it is. Check how wide the bid vs ask spread is.

Theta:
iron condor
iron fly
covered call
cash secured put
calendar spread
collar

Delta:
call
put
straddle
strangle
debit spread
credit spread

Bull:
call
put credit spread
call debit spread
cash secured put

Bear:
put
call credit spread
put debit spread
covered call

Neutral:
straddle
strangle
iron condor
iron fly
collar (often used for downside insurance)
calendar spread (short or long time)

Options important variables:
Strike = share price
itm, atm, otm = strike position
Expiry = Date of expiration
Value = H, L & Mark
Liquidity = bid vs ask spread
Direction = put or call
OI = open interest
V = volume
IV = implied volatility
Delta = price
Theta = time
Vega = volatility
Gamma = momentum

Note

Netflix Misses. Netflix (NFLX) reported Q4 December 2022 earnings of $0.12 per share. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.46 earnings per share on revenue of $7.82 billion. The company said in its shareholders letter it expectsQ1 earnings of approximately $2.82 per share on revenue of approximately $8.17 billion.

Note

NFLX 16hr ext chart (1 day):

Note

NFLX 2/17 expiry put at $345 / share price idea

Note

NFLX own 100 shares collar trade idea:
Hold 100 shares
Sell 2/17 expiry 320 call
Buy 2/17 expiry 360 put

Note

NFLX totally irrational price action imo:

Note

NFLX start small short position idea at $360 / share price, wait until Wednesday to adjust.

Note

NFLX may bounce back next week according to its uptrend channel 8-month support around 320ish:

Note

NFLX SMA's 50, 100, 200:

Options360

Trading indicators:
tradingview.com/u/Options360/

Disclaimer

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Options360

Trading indicators:
tradingview.com/u/Options360/