Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures (Jan 2020)

Long

Updated

Natural Gas - Training Day

As we are getting close to the winter I'm also watching the Natural Gas December and January futures as price most probably will peak at the end of the year.

Yesterday's chart was very interesting in both.

Though we lost both the 50 and 100 SMA I think price finally is ready to bounce again.
The decline was much more severe than I was waiting for. (Fibonacci 78,6 % retracement)

The good news that both the January and December contract printed a swing on the daily chart.

I would like to see a fast recovery above the 50 SMA this week.

The 5 day RSI turned up from oversold conditions, and SToch RSI has reached the oversold territory.
Both the MACD and the TSI at the zero line. If this is a new IC than we need to turn up from her in both indicator.

Finally we had a nice volume yesterday and this combined with a swing is a very good news for the bulls.

The pullback has tagged the Fibonacci 78,6% line. In Natgas it' s quite normal : this is a volatile beast:

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short squeeze is starting.

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If we close here it's a key reversal. A higher high above the August ICL.
So chance is high we are going to break above 3 this year.

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January futures also look great with the key reversal.
Volume encouraging too.

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- Closing above the 50 SMA
- RSI has left oversold territory
- STOCH RSI turning up
- KEY REVERSAL: The low of the day and the high of the day is engulfing the previous day's candle. Actually not just the previous day but day before yesterday's candle too

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Look how the 50 SMA worked during the trending moves.
When it broke below it in the uptrend the regain of the 50 SMA was the sign of the continuation of the trend.
When price broke above it in the downtrend losing again the 50 SMA was the sign of the continuation of the downtrend.

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It seems we jumped back to pick up someone who was left behind.

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I guess everybody is on board in the rigged market.
One more unsuccessful attempt to break yesterday's low.
Now finally we can break above the 50 SMA.
Anyone bought today's drop?

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Nightstar is roght below. We have divergencies
In the Tsi And RSI too

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I don’t see any other explanation that one of the commercisls locked in the price at 2.35$ yesterday . Comms are hedging the production many times. If one of them is comfortable with a price opens a short position.

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NatGas in +5%.
Last Friday the November contract expired.
Many players wanted to wait if Monday Natgas is dumped again and tgey can buy it at lower price.
Instead of a drop we opened a gap and now all who was waiting for a better price will have to chase.

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In the winter season you have to prepare for a contract expiry.
If you wait for a better price when the contract expired you might get left behind with no position.

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We broke the 200 SMA 2 days ago. Now it looks like we just tested back before the next leg up.

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Last time a few weeks ago we turned down from the 200SMA. If we can stay above it it’s a game changer.

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This is super bullish.

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This might be the beginning of a beautiful rally.

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Was a long time ago when I’ve something more bullish then this:

A perfect bounce from the 200SMA. All who sold on the hope that 200 SMA will Stop The advance will
Need to chase now.
We just need a few bears who are selling this double top to make a new high in this rally.

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But the double top on the small timeframe is actually a left translated double bottom ahead of one of the coldest winters in this century.

chartwatchers

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chartwatchers

Also on:

Related publications

NatGas - 28 days later

by chartwatchers