Nifty 50 Index

NIFTY: "Josh" to "JOLTS"

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There are times, one suffers in finding the news to reason, then are times, too much news to bank on any one to justify. While bulls hate uncertainty, bear's love lots of conflicting news. It is mind over the matter as always. The same price action looks differently in bull markets and bear markets. One price many takers.

JOSH, is the first of the Rectangle marking as part of wave (1), complete up move, dismay starting in 2020 Mar/April. Made every one MAD, narratives drawn, hold your breath for life. Oct 2021 till about start of the 2022 third Quarter, it is reality and then Start of Mar 23 it is once again euphoria, this time largely led by small and mid caps. The larger rotating rectangular shape. The circles size big are important, small are relatively important in term of trend line repect.

JOLTS: The current move within parrell lines drawn from 2 is now under attack, potentially triggering move below 19300 (MPC hawkish tone?), extension to the large RED arrow drawn to the rotating Triangle low 18300 opens up the debate of bulls getting JOLTS. JOLTS is the US Job openings, that has come far higher than expected, data the FED does not want to see to pause, one more hike is priced in this year. The cuts won't happen before the last quarter of 2024.

Our own PMI comes below 58, it is still strongest relative terms, but then markets would focus that on some other day. All agencies look for 6% plus growth. Damper is the inflation and soaring cost of borrowing. Private investment and Public Savings not helping either. These are not the information that is new, but that is how the markets choose to selectively pick to proceed.

Dollar roars, INR dithers (crawls thanks to the continued support, but how long?). There is absolutely no way, the index looks higher, now that we see one more gap down probing and attacking the 19480 attempting towards 19300. At what state the Index postpones its inherent up move is when we lose 19300 on weekly basis. While it looks all gloomy, we have not yet lost this base.

For the day 19400-19600 to work.

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