6/24/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
NKE
Setup long into print but I'm on bench
Quick comment on this softline bellwether.
- Look at "NKE/SPY" on trading view e.g. look at Nike as compared to the S&P "comp". Puts you back at 2013 levels. In other words it's been a pretty bad "money"
- recent result was weak/ consumer still yet to be cracking, and they'll really have to blow out of the water AND talk about how they're taking share
- on this taking share point - have you noticed all these co's beating
ONON, 
DECK, 
CROX etc. that aren't obviously true comps, but nonetheless - taking the core business and growing in other areas Nike can't directly address. I'm not an expert here, but from my arm chair this matters
- valuation is 27x PE... not "cheap". 3.5% yield and growing MSD at best is better cash - but again so are most A-tier brands.
So in sum i'd expect a beat but it's hard to see institutions backing up the truck and adding. Look what happened to
LULU, gave a lot of it back, didn't stick. Smaller co. Probably a better MT-LT grower (vs. NKE). Cheaper PE too.
It's tough for me to like this one into the results even if the chart looks like a good setup as this a. tape is rich/ toppy (for now - more on this later) and b. the stock has not been a good store of value so there needs to be an inflection in sentiment and facing this current consumer + being industry leader (so harder to "buck" the trend)... no me gusta mucho.
I'm on the bench, warming up for a better pitch.
Gl to longs. lmk if i've overlooked anything
V
NKESetup long into print but I'm on bench
Quick comment on this softline bellwether.
- Look at "NKE/SPY" on trading view e.g. look at Nike as compared to the S&P "comp". Puts you back at 2013 levels. In other words it's been a pretty bad "money"
- recent result was weak/ consumer still yet to be cracking, and they'll really have to blow out of the water AND talk about how they're taking share
- on this taking share point - have you noticed all these co's beating
ONON, DECK, CROX etc. that aren't obviously true comps, but nonetheless - taking the core business and growing in other areas Nike can't directly address. I'm not an expert here, but from my arm chair this matters- valuation is 27x PE... not "cheap". 3.5% yield and growing MSD at best is better cash - but again so are most A-tier brands.
So in sum i'd expect a beat but it's hard to see institutions backing up the truck and adding. Look what happened to
LULU, gave a lot of it back, didn't stick. Smaller co. Probably a better MT-LT grower (vs. NKE). Cheaper PE too.It's tough for me to like this one into the results even if the chart looks like a good setup as this a. tape is rich/ toppy (for now - more on this later) and b. the stock has not been a good store of value so there needs to be an inflection in sentiment and facing this current consumer + being industry leader (so harder to "buck" the trend)... no me gusta mucho.
I'm on the bench, warming up for a better pitch.
Gl to longs. lmk if i've overlooked anything
V
Note
Tough to touch this. Perhaps there's a retrace, but we'll need to see signs of an improving economy, I think, before there's a clear inflection. - On one hand, they are the clear leader still. A reset of innovation is more probable than the converse. Generate cash, probably doesn't get dumped for long.
- On the other hand, if you have the privilege of being non institutional, you can just own the marginal winners (
ONON comes to mind) as well as slightly larger co's like LULU, CROX - and that's probably the better place to pick and choose.Think the holders will be just fine in time, but the ST could see a lot of chop.
Note
-18% is a bit overdone, I think. that puts this thing in the low 20s PE or if you adjust for a chit consumer environment maybe 25x still. not cheap, still, but probably worth a retrace trade today at $77. i'll go 25 bps at $77 here and another 25 bps at $75 today if we see it.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.