📊 COT Analysis – NASDAQ E-MINI Futures
Asset Managers → Consistently net long, but without accumulation: showing little conviction on new lows.
Leveraged Money → Confirmed aggressive shorts, a clear sign that smart money doesn't believe in the bounce.
✅ COT Conclusion:
Smart money is not buying the dip → fundamental bias = bearish.
🧠 Technical Breakdown + My Long Trade
📉 Structure:
Strong rejection from the 16,700–17,300 zone, with a long weekly wick = signs of accumulation.
Price formed a double bottom + weekly engulfing candle, right on the demand zone → confirming strong buyer pressure.
🎯 My Long Trade (LIVE SETUP):
Entry: After confirmation of bullish price action on the blue demand zone
Target: Supply zone 20,400–21,000
Exit: Closed just before the drop → perfect trade management, respecting structure and weekly resistance
📈 Post-trade context:
Price then rejected violently from that zone → we’re now back around 18,400, and if 18,000 breaks, the door opens toward 16,700.
🧭 What’s Next?
🔹 If price pulls back to 19,200–19,500, I’ll look for a short setup
🔹 If it breaks below 18,000 → clean path toward 16,700–16,500
✅ Trade Summary
🔥 Long from structural demand zone → exit at weekly supply
🧠 Setup based on price action + RSI and structural confluence
🐻 Now the bias shifts back to bearish: watch the 18k level closely
Asset Managers → Consistently net long, but without accumulation: showing little conviction on new lows.
Leveraged Money → Confirmed aggressive shorts, a clear sign that smart money doesn't believe in the bounce.
✅ COT Conclusion:
Smart money is not buying the dip → fundamental bias = bearish.
🧠 Technical Breakdown + My Long Trade
📉 Structure:
Strong rejection from the 16,700–17,300 zone, with a long weekly wick = signs of accumulation.
Price formed a double bottom + weekly engulfing candle, right on the demand zone → confirming strong buyer pressure.
🎯 My Long Trade (LIVE SETUP):
Entry: After confirmation of bullish price action on the blue demand zone
Target: Supply zone 20,400–21,000
Exit: Closed just before the drop → perfect trade management, respecting structure and weekly resistance
📈 Post-trade context:
Price then rejected violently from that zone → we’re now back around 18,400, and if 18,000 breaks, the door opens toward 16,700.
🧭 What’s Next?
🔹 If price pulls back to 19,200–19,500, I’ll look for a short setup
🔹 If it breaks below 18,000 → clean path toward 16,700–16,500
✅ Trade Summary
🔥 Long from structural demand zone → exit at weekly supply
🧠 Setup based on price action + RSI and structural confluence
🐻 Now the bias shifts back to bearish: watch the 18k level closely
Trade active
✅ NASDAQ Long (NQ1!)
Strong recovery from demand and bullish continuation
Risk/Reward: 1:3
COT shows institutional long bias
Retail still fighting the trend (short-biased)
Final TP updated: 22,000
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.