NVDA at a Decision Point! Gamma Walls and CHoCH Setups in Play 🔥
🔍 GEX Analysis (Options Sentiment Overview)
* Current Price: 143.85
* Key Gamma Levels:
* GEX Support Zone: 140 → 141 (Major PUT Support with -28.46% positioning)
* PUT Wall Zones: 139, 138 (risk of acceleration below 140)
* Resistance Above: 146 → 149 range (Highest positive GEX @ 150, dense CALL walls up to 155)
* GEX Interpretation:
* Above 146: Triggers a mild-to-strong positive gamma squeeze potential. Clear air to 150 → 155.
* Below 141: Exposes NVDA to negative gamma drift toward 138 and possibly 134.
* Sentiment Metrics:
* IVR: 3.9 (Extremely low)
* IVx avg: 43.6
* Options Skew: Call $ flow only at 4.5% → suggesting lower speculative bullish bets currently.
📈 Technical Structure – 1H SMC Breakdown
* Trend: Currently in a consolidation range with a breakdown attempt under ascending channel and CHoCH shift.
* CHoCH Confirmed: Multiple bearish CHoCHs signal change of character at the highs.
* Rejection Zone: 145.48 → 146.20 (purple supply zone holding)
* Support Demand Zone: 140.86 → 142.20 (green box below where buyers may defend)
* Break of Structure (BoS): Under 143.13 opens the door to revisit lower demand zones.
⚔️ Trade Scenarios
🟩 Bullish Scenario
* Entry: Above 146.20 reclaim (post-break and retest)
* Target 1: 149.00
* Target 2: 150.50 → 155.00
* Stop Loss: Below 143.50
* Confluence: Gamma squeeze + reclaim of CHoCH rejection = fuel to upside
🟥 Bearish Scenario
* Entry: Breakdown below 143.13 with confirmation
* Target 1: 141
* Target 2: 138
* Stop Loss: Above 145.50
* Confluence: Bearish CHoCH + gamma wall at 140 could act like a magnet
📌 What to Watch
* GEX Pivot: 146.20 → Key reclaim level to watch early week.
* Volume Clues: Last drop had strong volume surge → If it sustains below 144, favor bearish flow.
* Intraday Bias: First retest of 144 → 145 zone may be a short opportunity unless bulls absorb and flip structure.
💡 Quick Thoughts
* NVDA is stuck in a high-volatility zone between a strong CALL wall cluster above and PUT support danger zone below.
* If macro or SPY drags, the 140 wall could get tested quickly.
* On the flip side, a reclaim of 146.20 is an easy trigger for bulls to squeeze to 150 and potentially 155.
📉 Bias: Slightly bearish unless bulls reclaim 146.20 and hold. 🎯 Most Important Level This Week: 146.20
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
🔍 GEX Analysis (Options Sentiment Overview)
* Current Price: 143.85
* Key Gamma Levels:
* GEX Support Zone: 140 → 141 (Major PUT Support with -28.46% positioning)
* PUT Wall Zones: 139, 138 (risk of acceleration below 140)
* Resistance Above: 146 → 149 range (Highest positive GEX @ 150, dense CALL walls up to 155)
* GEX Interpretation:
* Above 146: Triggers a mild-to-strong positive gamma squeeze potential. Clear air to 150 → 155.
* Below 141: Exposes NVDA to negative gamma drift toward 138 and possibly 134.
* Sentiment Metrics:
* IVR: 3.9 (Extremely low)
* IVx avg: 43.6
* Options Skew: Call $ flow only at 4.5% → suggesting lower speculative bullish bets currently.
📈 Technical Structure – 1H SMC Breakdown
* Trend: Currently in a consolidation range with a breakdown attempt under ascending channel and CHoCH shift.
* CHoCH Confirmed: Multiple bearish CHoCHs signal change of character at the highs.
* Rejection Zone: 145.48 → 146.20 (purple supply zone holding)
* Support Demand Zone: 140.86 → 142.20 (green box below where buyers may defend)
* Break of Structure (BoS): Under 143.13 opens the door to revisit lower demand zones.
⚔️ Trade Scenarios
🟩 Bullish Scenario
* Entry: Above 146.20 reclaim (post-break and retest)
* Target 1: 149.00
* Target 2: 150.50 → 155.00
* Stop Loss: Below 143.50
* Confluence: Gamma squeeze + reclaim of CHoCH rejection = fuel to upside
🟥 Bearish Scenario
* Entry: Breakdown below 143.13 with confirmation
* Target 1: 141
* Target 2: 138
* Stop Loss: Above 145.50
* Confluence: Bearish CHoCH + gamma wall at 140 could act like a magnet
📌 What to Watch
* GEX Pivot: 146.20 → Key reclaim level to watch early week.
* Volume Clues: Last drop had strong volume surge → If it sustains below 144, favor bearish flow.
* Intraday Bias: First retest of 144 → 145 zone may be a short opportunity unless bulls absorb and flip structure.
💡 Quick Thoughts
* NVDA is stuck in a high-volatility zone between a strong CALL wall cluster above and PUT support danger zone below.
* If macro or SPY drags, the 140 wall could get tested quickly.
* On the flip side, a reclaim of 146.20 is an easy trigger for bulls to squeeze to 150 and potentially 155.
📉 Bias: Slightly bearish unless bulls reclaim 146.20 and hold. 🎯 Most Important Level This Week: 146.20
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.