🔍 Technical Analysis (1H Chart)
* Market Structure & SMC: NVDA has consistently respected a downward sloping parallel channel. We see multiple CHoCHs (Change of Character) and a recent Break of Structure (BOS), confirming a bearish trend continuation. Price failed to reclaim the mid-supply zone and is hugging the bottom channel support.
* Supply/Resistance Zones:
* Immediate Resistance: $110.69 (top of current rejection zone)
* Mid Resistance: $114.47
* Strong Resistance: $122.25 (major supply zone)
* Support Levels:
* Immediate Support: $108.64
* Next Critical Support: $104.77 (marked as highest negative GEX / Put Wall support)
* Indicators:
* MACD: Momentum remains bearish with flat histogram bars. No bullish crossover yet.
* Stoch RSI: Oversold but not curling up yet – no strong reversal signal here.
* Volume: Slight uptick on recent sell-off, but not panic volume.
📊 Options Flow / GEX Sentiment (Right Chart)
* GEX Analysis:
* Negative GEX Cluster between $109–105, showing Put Dominance.
* HVL Zone (High Volume Liquidity) near $112, suggesting a magnet zone if bulls recover.
* Strong Call Wall at $118 and $122 — tough resistance ahead.
* Max Put Support Zone at $104.77 – could act as a bounce point or trap.
* Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 24.5 – relatively low implied volatility rank.
* IVx avg: 60.1 – moderate implied volatility.
* CALLS only 5.4% – heavily skewed bearish sentiment.
* Red GEX Bars – dominant Put positions hint at hedge-heavy downside pressure.
🧠 Trade Setups
Scalp/Short-Term Setup
* Bearish Bias unless NVDA reclaims $110.69 with volume.
* 📉 Short Entry: Below $108.50 🎯 Target: $105.00 → $104.77 ❌ Stop: $111.00
Reversal Play (Speculative)
* Watch for bullish divergence or sharp reclaim of $112.
* 📈 Long Entry: Above $112 (HVL reclaim) 🎯 Target: $114.50 → $118 ❌ Stop: $108
🧨 Options Strategy Idea
Bearish Vertical Spread (Short-Term)
* Buy 110 Put / Sell 105 Put
* Expiration: 1-2 weeks
* Net debit: lower cost with defined risk
* Thesis: NVDA fades toward $105 support
Long Call Idea (Only if $112 flips with strength):
* Buy 115 Call – 2 weeks out
* Needs confirmation of reversal or gamma squeeze
🧭 Bias Summary
* ✅ Directional Bias: Bearish until $112 is reclaimed
* 📉 Price is within a bear channel, respecting structure
* 🔴 Options sentiment confirms downside pressure
* 🛑 Do not long blindly at support – wait for signs of strength
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk carefully.
* Market Structure & SMC: NVDA has consistently respected a downward sloping parallel channel. We see multiple CHoCHs (Change of Character) and a recent Break of Structure (BOS), confirming a bearish trend continuation. Price failed to reclaim the mid-supply zone and is hugging the bottom channel support.
* Supply/Resistance Zones:
* Immediate Resistance: $110.69 (top of current rejection zone)
* Mid Resistance: $114.47
* Strong Resistance: $122.25 (major supply zone)
* Support Levels:
* Immediate Support: $108.64
* Next Critical Support: $104.77 (marked as highest negative GEX / Put Wall support)
* Indicators:
* MACD: Momentum remains bearish with flat histogram bars. No bullish crossover yet.
* Stoch RSI: Oversold but not curling up yet – no strong reversal signal here.
* Volume: Slight uptick on recent sell-off, but not panic volume.
📊 Options Flow / GEX Sentiment (Right Chart)
* GEX Analysis:
* Negative GEX Cluster between $109–105, showing Put Dominance.
* HVL Zone (High Volume Liquidity) near $112, suggesting a magnet zone if bulls recover.
* Strong Call Wall at $118 and $122 — tough resistance ahead.
* Max Put Support Zone at $104.77 – could act as a bounce point or trap.
* Options Oscillator:
* IVR: 24.5 – relatively low implied volatility rank.
* IVx avg: 60.1 – moderate implied volatility.
* CALLS only 5.4% – heavily skewed bearish sentiment.
* Red GEX Bars – dominant Put positions hint at hedge-heavy downside pressure.
🧠 Trade Setups
Scalp/Short-Term Setup
* Bearish Bias unless NVDA reclaims $110.69 with volume.
* 📉 Short Entry: Below $108.50 🎯 Target: $105.00 → $104.77 ❌ Stop: $111.00
Reversal Play (Speculative)
* Watch for bullish divergence or sharp reclaim of $112.
* 📈 Long Entry: Above $112 (HVL reclaim) 🎯 Target: $114.50 → $118 ❌ Stop: $108
🧨 Options Strategy Idea
Bearish Vertical Spread (Short-Term)
* Buy 110 Put / Sell 105 Put
* Expiration: 1-2 weeks
* Net debit: lower cost with defined risk
* Thesis: NVDA fades toward $105 support
Long Call Idea (Only if $112 flips with strength):
* Buy 115 Call – 2 weeks out
* Needs confirmation of reversal or gamma squeeze
🧭 Bias Summary
* ✅ Directional Bias: Bearish until $112 is reclaimed
* 📉 Price is within a bear channel, respecting structure
* 🔴 Options sentiment confirms downside pressure
* 🛑 Do not long blindly at support – wait for signs of strength
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk carefully.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.