6/28/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
NXT
rebuilding position again <$47
encourage you to read the long thread i wrote when i took the position back in may around results. the tl;dr is ... in near $40, out near $60 bc had gone too far too fast.
i'm coming back to this in a smaller size ~50 bps near the $47 line. i STILL believe this tape is going to be SUPER brutal for anything that's not mega tech, and especially higher cost of capital industries like solar. HOWEVER, i fundamentally believe solar sits at the beginning of it's decades plus S-curve/ adoption.
andNXT simply has the best IP in the industry. it's the best stock to own and also the most expensive for a good reason.
but 15x for something that
- is the only solar w/o trough results in '24 (growing instead!)
- high quality IP
- opex inflection just mounting and mounting
- good capital stack (no debt issues)
- 400 mm of L12M fcf... on 7 bn of enterprise value gets you still > 5% yield on an asset growing like a weed - a buy
so where's the place you'd load up? probably sub $40 and in the $30s. but having now seen
- how they can just beat and beat and beat
- the stock trades... it WANTS to go higher
- and my view on the biz/ outlook
i'm re-initiating my position here at 50 bps. it's not a trading position, so i'll be adding the lower we go and finding opportunistic spots to add.
my solar pecking order is
NXT > 
ENPH > 
SHLS
as you might know i've tradedSHLS w/ calls helping support my entry/ and no longer own it
NXT is currently (as of rn) the only solar name in my portfolio and in light of this whack tape, the only one i can justify owning b/c of it's superior quality.
lmk if u agree/ disagree
V
NXTrebuilding position again <$47
encourage you to read the long thread i wrote when i took the position back in may around results. the tl;dr is ... in near $40, out near $60 bc had gone too far too fast.
i'm coming back to this in a smaller size ~50 bps near the $47 line. i STILL believe this tape is going to be SUPER brutal for anything that's not mega tech, and especially higher cost of capital industries like solar. HOWEVER, i fundamentally believe solar sits at the beginning of it's decades plus S-curve/ adoption.
and
NXT simply has the best IP in the industry. it's the best stock to own and also the most expensive for a good reason.but 15x for something that
- is the only solar w/o trough results in '24 (growing instead!)
- high quality IP
- opex inflection just mounting and mounting
- good capital stack (no debt issues)
- 400 mm of L12M fcf... on 7 bn of enterprise value gets you still > 5% yield on an asset growing like a weed - a buy
so where's the place you'd load up? probably sub $40 and in the $30s. but having now seen
- how they can just beat and beat and beat
- the stock trades... it WANTS to go higher
- and my view on the biz/ outlook
i'm re-initiating my position here at 50 bps. it's not a trading position, so i'll be adding the lower we go and finding opportunistic spots to add.
my solar pecking order is
NXT > ENPH > SHLSas you might know i've traded
SHLS w/ calls helping support my entry/ and no longer own itNXT is currently (as of rn) the only solar name in my portfolio and in light of this whack tape, the only one i can justify owning b/c of it's superior quality.lmk if u agree/ disagree
V
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.