NZD/CAD – 18 June 2025
📋 PLAN OVERVIEW
Parameter Details
Type Swing Short
Direction 🔻 Bearish
Status ✅ Active Setup Forming
R:R 1:3 (Base Targeted)
Confidence ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (88%) – Clean HTF Compression Structure
📈 MARKET BIAS & TRADE TYPE
Price is operating within a highly coiled D1/H4 compression range, after a clean rejection off a prior supply shelf at 0.8245–0.8260. The current move down is structurally aligned with a larger HTF BOS event from late May, where price failed to sustain above 0.8300 and dropped impulsively.
📌 Trade Type: Continuation (Supply Rejection) 📌 Bias Origin: D1 CHoCH + H4 OB rejection + Minor FVG fill
🔰 CONFIDENCE FACTORS
Component Weight Score
HTF Structure (D1 CHoCH, H4 OB) 35% ✅
Liquidity Logic (Equal Highs, Wick Sweeps) 25% ✅
Macro/Sentiment (NZD Weak, CAD Neutral) 25% ⚠️ Mixed
Volume & Reaction History 15% ✅
Total Confidence Score: 88% ✅
📍 ENTRY ZONES
Zone Range Type Confidence
🟦 Zone 1 0.8238–0.8258 H4 OB (Refined) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🟧 Zone 2 0.8285–0.8300 D1 FVG Tap + Inducement ⭐⭐⭐
📌 Price currently below Zone 1 → Awaiting retrace or rejection wick for tactical entry. 📌 Both zones are supply-driven and lie above recent BOS.
❗ STOP LOSS LOGIC
* Zone 1 SL: Above 0.8265 (Above OB + wick)
* Zone 2 SL: Above 0.8305 (Breaks structure + clears inducement)
🎯 TAKE PROFIT LEVELS
TP Level Reason
TP1 0.8180 Intra-day LTF structure shelf
TP2 0.8145 D1 reaction zone & minor support
TP3 0.8100 HTF liquidity pocket / imbalance draw
🧠 TRADE MANAGEMENT LOGIC
* Entry 1/2 if Zone 1 taps with H1 engulfing
* Entry 1/2 if Zone 2 taps and confirms with volume/sweep
* SL to breakeven on TP1
* Reduce size at TP2, trail remainder with H1 fractal levels
* Fully exit if HTF BOS against plan occurs below TP1
⚠️ ENTRY CONFIRMATION CONDITIONS
Confirmation Required
H1 Bearish Engulfing ✅
Volume Spike / Sweep Wick ✅
NY or London Session Trigger ✅
📌 Market orders allowed only if all 3 are met after OB tap
⏳ TRADE VALIDITY WINDOW
Zone Duration
Zone 1 Valid for 18–24h (London–NY overlap ideal)
Zone 2 Valid up to 48h
❌ INVALIDATION
* H1 close above 0.8305
* Bullish structure flip on H4
🌐 MACRO SNAPSHOT
Asset Condition
NZD Weak – no supportive macro/fundamentals
CAD Oil-neutral – no major directional catalyst
Risk Sentiment Risk-off supportive of CAD
Macro Alignment: Partial ✅ (supports downside bias)
✅ FINAL TRADE SUMMARY
Entry SL TP1 / TP2 / TP3 R:R Status
0.8248 0.8265 0.8180 / 0.8145 / 0.8100 ~1:3
📋 PLAN OVERVIEW
Parameter Details
Type Swing Short
Direction 🔻 Bearish
Status ✅ Active Setup Forming
R:R 1:3 (Base Targeted)
Confidence ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (88%) – Clean HTF Compression Structure
📈 MARKET BIAS & TRADE TYPE
Price is operating within a highly coiled D1/H4 compression range, after a clean rejection off a prior supply shelf at 0.8245–0.8260. The current move down is structurally aligned with a larger HTF BOS event from late May, where price failed to sustain above 0.8300 and dropped impulsively.
📌 Trade Type: Continuation (Supply Rejection) 📌 Bias Origin: D1 CHoCH + H4 OB rejection + Minor FVG fill
🔰 CONFIDENCE FACTORS
Component Weight Score
HTF Structure (D1 CHoCH, H4 OB) 35% ✅
Liquidity Logic (Equal Highs, Wick Sweeps) 25% ✅
Macro/Sentiment (NZD Weak, CAD Neutral) 25% ⚠️ Mixed
Volume & Reaction History 15% ✅
Total Confidence Score: 88% ✅
📍 ENTRY ZONES
Zone Range Type Confidence
🟦 Zone 1 0.8238–0.8258 H4 OB (Refined) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
🟧 Zone 2 0.8285–0.8300 D1 FVG Tap + Inducement ⭐⭐⭐
📌 Price currently below Zone 1 → Awaiting retrace or rejection wick for tactical entry. 📌 Both zones are supply-driven and lie above recent BOS.
❗ STOP LOSS LOGIC
* Zone 1 SL: Above 0.8265 (Above OB + wick)
* Zone 2 SL: Above 0.8305 (Breaks structure + clears inducement)
🎯 TAKE PROFIT LEVELS
TP Level Reason
TP1 0.8180 Intra-day LTF structure shelf
TP2 0.8145 D1 reaction zone & minor support
TP3 0.8100 HTF liquidity pocket / imbalance draw
🧠 TRADE MANAGEMENT LOGIC
* Entry 1/2 if Zone 1 taps with H1 engulfing
* Entry 1/2 if Zone 2 taps and confirms with volume/sweep
* SL to breakeven on TP1
* Reduce size at TP2, trail remainder with H1 fractal levels
* Fully exit if HTF BOS against plan occurs below TP1
⚠️ ENTRY CONFIRMATION CONDITIONS
Confirmation Required
H1 Bearish Engulfing ✅
Volume Spike / Sweep Wick ✅
NY or London Session Trigger ✅
📌 Market orders allowed only if all 3 are met after OB tap
⏳ TRADE VALIDITY WINDOW
Zone Duration
Zone 1 Valid for 18–24h (London–NY overlap ideal)
Zone 2 Valid up to 48h
❌ INVALIDATION
* H1 close above 0.8305
* Bullish structure flip on H4
🌐 MACRO SNAPSHOT
Asset Condition
NZD Weak – no supportive macro/fundamentals
CAD Oil-neutral – no major directional catalyst
Risk Sentiment Risk-off supportive of CAD
Macro Alignment: Partial ✅ (supports downside bias)
✅ FINAL TRADE SUMMARY
Entry SL TP1 / TP2 / TP3 R:R Status
0.8248 0.8265 0.8180 / 0.8145 / 0.8100 ~1:3
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.