NZDCHF Price has formed a bearish pennant / triangle after a strong drop from the highs around 0.4960.
Rejection seen from the trendline resistance at ~0.4900, suggesting limited bullish momentum.
Bearish targets are mapped to:
0.4847 (first support)
0.4819 (deeper bearish target)
Two bearish scenarios drawn, both suggesting downside pressure is likely if support breaks.
Structure Bias: Bearish as long as below ~0.4905
📊 Current Bias: Bearish
🧩 Key Fundamentals Driving NZDCHF
NZD Side (Mixed to Weak):
RBNZ held rates at 5.50%, but no additional hawkish surprises. Kiwi is underperforming against safe-havens despite resilience.
Mixed Chinese influence: Some recent recovery in China’s retail/consumption data (e.g., 618 festival) but not strong enough to fuel Kiwi strength.
Risk sentiment: Global geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran, Ukraine) are pressuring high-beta currencies like NZD.
CHF Side (Strengthening):
Swiss Franc bid on risk-off: CHF is strengthening as a safe-haven due to escalating geopolitical concerns and volatile global markets.
SNB not cutting yet: Recent SNB assessment indicates gradual, patient stance. The central bank may ease later in 2025, but no urgency.
European proximity flows: CHF benefits from proximity to EU and low volatility in domestic economy.
⚠️ Risks That May Reverse the Trend
Surprise RBNZ hawkish speech or inflation spike
Risk-on reversal boosting NZD
Unexpected SNB rate cut or dovish surprise
🗓️ Key News to Watch
🇳🇿 NZ Trade Balance and inflation expectations
🇨🇭 Swiss inflation data and SNB commentary
Global sentiment drivers: Middle East headlines, equity volatility
🏁 Which Asset May Lead?
NZDCHF may lag behind NZDJPY or AUDCHF in volatility but offers a cleaner risk-off signal. If CHF strength and Kiwi weakness persist, this pair can trend with limited noise.
Rejection seen from the trendline resistance at ~0.4900, suggesting limited bullish momentum.
Bearish targets are mapped to:
0.4847 (first support)
0.4819 (deeper bearish target)
Two bearish scenarios drawn, both suggesting downside pressure is likely if support breaks.
Structure Bias: Bearish as long as below ~0.4905
📊 Current Bias: Bearish
🧩 Key Fundamentals Driving NZDCHF
NZD Side (Mixed to Weak):
RBNZ held rates at 5.50%, but no additional hawkish surprises. Kiwi is underperforming against safe-havens despite resilience.
Mixed Chinese influence: Some recent recovery in China’s retail/consumption data (e.g., 618 festival) but not strong enough to fuel Kiwi strength.
Risk sentiment: Global geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran, Ukraine) are pressuring high-beta currencies like NZD.
CHF Side (Strengthening):
Swiss Franc bid on risk-off: CHF is strengthening as a safe-haven due to escalating geopolitical concerns and volatile global markets.
SNB not cutting yet: Recent SNB assessment indicates gradual, patient stance. The central bank may ease later in 2025, but no urgency.
European proximity flows: CHF benefits from proximity to EU and low volatility in domestic economy.
⚠️ Risks That May Reverse the Trend
Surprise RBNZ hawkish speech or inflation spike
Risk-on reversal boosting NZD
Unexpected SNB rate cut or dovish surprise
🗓️ Key News to Watch
🇳🇿 NZ Trade Balance and inflation expectations
🇨🇭 Swiss inflation data and SNB commentary
Global sentiment drivers: Middle East headlines, equity volatility
🏁 Which Asset May Lead?
NZDCHF may lag behind NZDJPY or AUDCHF in volatility but offers a cleaner risk-off signal. If CHF strength and Kiwi weakness persist, this pair can trend with limited noise.
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✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
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✅ 85% Accuracy | 1–2 Signals/Day
💰 Profitable Trades Sent Daily – No Cost
📲 Join Us on Telegram
t.me/ultreos_forex
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.