NZD/JPY: Bearish Wedge Before RBNZ Catalyst

• 1️⃣ Monetary Policy Divergence (🇳🇿 vs 🇯🇵): This is the core engine of the trade. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is dovish, signaling rate cuts amid a fragile domestic economy. In stark contrast, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is hawkish, having started a historic policy normalization to combat persistent inflation. This fundamental clash is strongly bearish for NZD/JPY.
  
• 2️⃣ Risk-Off Catalyst (🇺🇸): The market is nervous ahead of the July 9th US tariff deadline. This uncertainty is creating a classic "risk-off" environment, which typically strengthens the safe-haven JPY and weakens risk-sensitive currencies like the NZD.
  
• 3️⃣ The RBNZ Decision (🏦): The main event on July 9. The market expects a "dovish hold," meaning even if rates are unchanged, the forward guidance will likely be very cautious, highlighting economic risks and signaling future cuts. This is the catalyst that could trigger the sell-off.
  

• 1️⃣ Bearish Rising Wedge: Price is being squeezed into a classic bearish reversal pattern. This shows that buying pressure is exhausted, and the market is preparing for a move to the downside.
  
• 2️⃣ Key Resistance Zone: The wedge is pushing directly into a heavy supply zone between 87.80 and 88.00. This area has acted as a firm brick wall 🧱, rejecting multiple attempts to move higher.
  
• 3️⃣ RSI Momentum: The RSI below the chart confirms the weakening momentum. It's failing to show strong bullish power, which supports the price action and signals that the uptrend is running out of steam. 💨
  

Direction: Short (Sell) 📉
Order Type: Limit Sell
Entry: 87.80 📍
Stop Loss: 88.40 🛡️
Take Profit: 86.00 💰
Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3 ⭐⭐⭐