Pair: NZDJPY
Timeframe: 4H
Bias: Bearish
🔍 Technical Setup:
NZDJPY has broken sharply from its recent consolidation and is now testing a critical 4H support zone near 87.00. A decisive break below this zone would open the path toward lower support levels.
📍 Entry Trigger: Break and close below 86.95
🎯 Target 1: 85.95
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 87.35
📉 RSI: Near oversold, confirming strong bearish pressure
This setup reflects a classic bearish continuation with momentum and structure aligned.
🧠 Fundamental + Macro Confluence:
🔻 New Zealand (NZD):
RBNZ cut rates to 3.25% citing weak inflation, growth slowdown, and spare capacity.
Employment data remains fragile; upcoming releases add downside risk.
NZD is under pressure due to falling export demand amid global trade tensions.
CFTC positioning shows longs reducing, net positioning weakening — sentiment turning bearish.
🔺 Japan (JPY):
Bank of Japan is gradually tightening — while still accommodative, the bias is shifting hawkish.
JPY benefits as risk-off sentiment grows — fueled by weak equity markets and rising VIX (20.42).
CFTC shows a massive drop in NNCs, aligning with institutional flows favoring JPY strength.
🌐 Risk Sentiment:
VIX > 20 confirms risk-off sentiment, bolstering safe-haven demand for JPY.
NZD, being a high-beta risk currency, weakens as global risk appetite fades.
Seasonal bias also aligns with weakness in NZD and strength in JPY.
📌 Final Take:
Macro, sentiment, and technicals all align for further downside in NZDJPY. Watch for a clean H4 close below 86.95 to confirm entry. This pair offers strong confluence — from central bank divergence to institutional flows and global volatility.
Timeframe: 4H
Bias: Bearish
🔍 Technical Setup:
NZDJPY has broken sharply from its recent consolidation and is now testing a critical 4H support zone near 87.00. A decisive break below this zone would open the path toward lower support levels.
📍 Entry Trigger: Break and close below 86.95
🎯 Target 1: 85.95
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 87.35
📉 RSI: Near oversold, confirming strong bearish pressure
This setup reflects a classic bearish continuation with momentum and structure aligned.
🧠 Fundamental + Macro Confluence:
🔻 New Zealand (NZD):
RBNZ cut rates to 3.25% citing weak inflation, growth slowdown, and spare capacity.
Employment data remains fragile; upcoming releases add downside risk.
NZD is under pressure due to falling export demand amid global trade tensions.
CFTC positioning shows longs reducing, net positioning weakening — sentiment turning bearish.
🔺 Japan (JPY):
Bank of Japan is gradually tightening — while still accommodative, the bias is shifting hawkish.
JPY benefits as risk-off sentiment grows — fueled by weak equity markets and rising VIX (20.42).
CFTC shows a massive drop in NNCs, aligning with institutional flows favoring JPY strength.
🌐 Risk Sentiment:
VIX > 20 confirms risk-off sentiment, bolstering safe-haven demand for JPY.
NZD, being a high-beta risk currency, weakens as global risk appetite fades.
Seasonal bias also aligns with weakness in NZD and strength in JPY.
📌 Final Take:
Macro, sentiment, and technicals all align for further downside in NZDJPY. Watch for a clean H4 close below 86.95 to confirm entry. This pair offers strong confluence — from central bank divergence to institutional flows and global volatility.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.