Today, I want to review the NZDJPY(
NZDJPY) pair short position from a fundamental and technical perspective. It seems to be in a good zone for a short position.
Do you agree with me?
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First, let's look at the fundamentals of NZDJPY.
New Zealand (RBNZ):
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the OCR by 25bps in May and hinted at further easing if inflation continues to cool. Recent CPI data has shown clear disinflation trends, increasing the likelihood of more rate cuts in the second half of 2025. Consumer confidence is also declining, and retail sales have been weaker than expected.
Japan (BoJ):
The Bank of Japan is under growing pressure to tighten monetary policy. Inflation remains above 2%, and market expectations for a rate hike later this year are building. Any shift from ultra-loose policy supports JPY strength, especially against weaker yielders like NZD.
Macro Summary:
Short NZDJPY is fundamentally justified. The pair aligns with macro forces: NZD is pressured by rate cuts and weak growth, while JPY is poised to strengthen with upcoming policy shifts.
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Now let's take a look at the NZDJPY chart on the 4-hour time frame.
NZDJPY is currently trading near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ)[90.00 JPY-87.95 JPY].
In terms of classic technical analysis, it appears that NZDJPY has successfully formed a Rising Wedge Pattern.
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks.
Based on the above explanation, I expect NZDJPY to drop to at least 87.159 JPY if the lower line of the Rising Wedge Pattern and the Support zone(86.50 JPY-87.00 JPY) are broken, the second target could be 86.043 JPY.
Note: Stop Loss(SL): 88.378 JPY
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
New Zealand Dollar/ Japanese Yen Analyze (NZDJPY), 4-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like'✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
NZDJPY) pair short position from a fundamental and technical perspective. It seems to be in a good zone for a short position.Do you agree with me?
----------------------------------------
First, let's look at the fundamentals of NZDJPY.
New Zealand (RBNZ):
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut the OCR by 25bps in May and hinted at further easing if inflation continues to cool. Recent CPI data has shown clear disinflation trends, increasing the likelihood of more rate cuts in the second half of 2025. Consumer confidence is also declining, and retail sales have been weaker than expected.
Japan (BoJ):
The Bank of Japan is under growing pressure to tighten monetary policy. Inflation remains above 2%, and market expectations for a rate hike later this year are building. Any shift from ultra-loose policy supports JPY strength, especially against weaker yielders like NZD.
Macro Summary:
- Diverging monetary policies: RBNZ easing, BoJ possibly tightening.
- NZD weakened by soft data, JPY strengthened by policy expectations.
- Risk sentiment is currently neutral-to-negative, favoring safe-haven JPY.
Short NZDJPY is fundamentally justified. The pair aligns with macro forces: NZD is pressured by rate cuts and weak growth, while JPY is poised to strengthen with upcoming policy shifts.
----------------------------------------
Now let's take a look at the NZDJPY chart on the 4-hour time frame.
NZDJPY is currently trading near the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ)[90.00 JPY-87.95 JPY].
In terms of classic technical analysis, it appears that NZDJPY has successfully formed a Rising Wedge Pattern.
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD-) between Consecutive Peaks.
Based on the above explanation, I expect NZDJPY to drop to at least 87.159 JPY if the lower line of the Rising Wedge Pattern and the Support zone(86.50 JPY-87.00 JPY) are broken, the second target could be 86.043 JPY.
Note: Stop Loss(SL): 88.378 JPY
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
New Zealand Dollar/ Japanese Yen Analyze (NZDJPY), 4-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like'✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
🎁Welcome than a 50% bonus(Low Spread)👉vtm.pro/Y3AV7r
🎁Get a 20% Discount on your trading FEE on BYBIT:👉partner.bybit.com/b/PEJMANZWIN
🎁Get a 20% Bonus & 30% Discount on LBANK exchange(NO KYC)👉lbank.one/join/uBythQd
🎁Get a 20% Discount on your trading FEE on BYBIT:👉partner.bybit.com/b/PEJMANZWIN
🎁Get a 20% Bonus & 30% Discount on LBANK exchange(NO KYC)👉lbank.one/join/uBythQd
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.