NZDUSD Clear Bearish Continuation

49
🧠 Timeframe Sentiment Overview

Weekly (W): Bullish

Daily (D): Bullish

12H, 6H, 4H: Bearish

Bias: Weak bearish retracement inside HTF bullish trend. Caution advised—likely a counter-trend play or short-term pullback trade.

📉 Market Structure Analysis

Bearish BOS recently occurred on 4H with a sharp drop.

Red arrow forecasts a continuation lower if price respects the short-term supply zone.

📊 EMA Confluence

Price is currently below both the 50 EMA (blue) and 200 EMA (red) → indicates a bearish short-term trend.

EMAs act as dynamic resistance in the supply zone.

Risk-Reward Ratio: Approximately 2:1 or better.

🔁 Strategy Notes

Since HTF is bullish (W + D), this is a counter-trend move, so confirmation (e.g. on 1H or 15m) is important.

Text on chart suggests waiting for 1H structure shift before executing the trade for better timing and lower risk.

✅ Confluences Supporting the Short

Clear 4H BOS and bearish momentum.

Bearish EMAs alignment (50 < 200).

Price entering previous support turned resistance.

Weekly AOI (target) is a high-probability demand zone.

Bearish momentum from 12H/6H/4H despite higher TF bullishness.

⚠️ Caution

Since W and D are bullish, price could bounce aggressively from the Weekly AOI.

Monitor LTF reaction closely for exit/reversal.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.