NZDUSD is carving out what appears to be a bearish continuation setup on the daily chart. The pair is forming lower highs and lower lows, guided by a clear corrective structure. As price breaks below the mini-leg retracement and edges lower, it suggests a potential slide toward the larger support zone around 0.5800–0.5820—an area that previously held as resistance and now flips to demand.
On the fundamentals front, the spotlight is on an increasingly dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Inflation has remained within the RBNZ’s target band, with annual CPI rising just to 2.7%—slightly below forecasts—while labor data shows the unemployment rate creeping up to 5.2%, and labor force participation dipping to multi-year lows. Markets are now pricing in an 88% probability of another rate cut in August, Further weighting the scales against the kiwi.
Political and economic headwinds also cast a shadow over the NZD. The housing market is under pressure; prices are retracing sharply, rents are falling, and migration is declining. While the government is pushing fiscal stimulus via infrastructure spending, the momentum remains fragile—and it adds to bearish pressure on NZD.
Technically, this setup offers a defined structure and clean risk-to-reward. A violation below the last swing low around 0.5930 opens the path to 0.5800–0.5820. If that level gives way, the next logical target lies closer to 0.5700. For now, traders should be watching for confluence near 0.5950 for potential entry, aiming lower with stops tight above recent swing highs.
On the fundamentals front, the spotlight is on an increasingly dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Inflation has remained within the RBNZ’s target band, with annual CPI rising just to 2.7%—slightly below forecasts—while labor data shows the unemployment rate creeping up to 5.2%, and labor force participation dipping to multi-year lows. Markets are now pricing in an 88% probability of another rate cut in August, Further weighting the scales against the kiwi.
Political and economic headwinds also cast a shadow over the NZD. The housing market is under pressure; prices are retracing sharply, rents are falling, and migration is declining. While the government is pushing fiscal stimulus via infrastructure spending, the momentum remains fragile—and it adds to bearish pressure on NZD.
Technically, this setup offers a defined structure and clean risk-to-reward. A violation below the last swing low around 0.5930 opens the path to 0.5800–0.5820. If that level gives way, the next logical target lies closer to 0.5700. For now, traders should be watching for confluence near 0.5950 for potential entry, aiming lower with stops tight above recent swing highs.
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Join our Forex Community Telegram group and connect with thousands of traders.
Hit the Link below
👇👇👇
linkin.bio/andrewstelegramfamily
Hit the Link below
👇👇👇
linkin.bio/andrewstelegramfamily
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.