Long

Updated

Oceanic currencies reversal

NZD & AUD are reversing, and the NZD is possibly providing a good RR entry.

There is a good news catalyst:

There is no big decision till next week, and it probably won't do anything

I guess the trend over the long term (multi month) is bearish, or neutral, but I am going to do something that Tesla & Crypto bulls are uncapable of comprehending, and be a bull in the short term only.
Jim Chanos got called a "hypocrite" by a brain deprived journo, for buying Tesla long calls a while ago.
I can't get over how ignorant these noobs are.

It could be an ABC, so what?
I see a potential reversal, and a big reward compared to risk, I want in!

Who cares if this is wrong? Might be. Lmao what kind of insecure brainfart would care about that?
It's an opportunity to make money.
Could end up like this:

Or this:

Here there is a convergence of factors pointing to: Enter here for maximum reward.
It allows to pinpoint an entry.

Zooming in 15 minutes, this is how I approach it:

Trade active

Allright here we go...

Note

Wow. XD

What a reaction. Got a hunch I might want to try holding on.
Let's see what happens at the first resistances.

Note

Bulls are sending a clear signal.
This feels great.

We don't have volume data, but we can look at some brokers and cme futures too.
All showing the same. Big buying. Nice rate cut.

Couple other brokers, same.

For now it's fine if it pullsback a bit.

If it goes go vertical, we'd want it to pullback but not much, and not a sharp vertical down.
Something liek this:

When it reverses it can reverse alot so we'll have to jump out.

Note

Uh it's going so fast I can't leave the pc for 2 minutes...

That's a daily ATR in 45 minutes...

Aussie went up a ton too, just didn't have a good entry here.
Wasn't sure where to buy.

I don't want to let go of that trade but I have to think about moving my SL now....
I guess this area makes sense?

Note

I never wanted to be looking at a 5 minute chart and taking decisions every 2 minutes xd

This 1 hour timeframe, 1ATR or a little less is normally the smallest I trade + here it is moving super fast, this is the most extreme for me.

Well... I want my SL to be far for now. Putting it well away.

Now last step is setting some price alerts with trading view, and letting it live its life.

Hopefully it will be another 15 minutes at least until I update this XD

Volatility <3

Note

Feels weird that it is "only" at 6 times the initial risk, but that's because I counted a 2 pip spread with my entry and SL. And on such a small timeframe it make a big difference.

Still very volatile, it's hard to keep up price moves faster than I can take a screenshot...
I would keep moving my SL up with 38.2% retrace, until it trends with ema's (1hr 4hr) and then use the 20-EMA + a slight distance below that.

STAHP MOVING SO FAST

Note

Using a little more than 0.236 as trailing stop still. As it goes up (if) SL will get tighter, maybe use emas.

For now my stop is far, price might but probably won't suddenly reverse and drop.
I might give up a moderately large amount of profits back but probably not.

So my stop is far and should not be hit, just in case, and I will monitor what happens around that resistance in the next hours.

Also looking at similar examples may help... To know what to expect.
I have seen plenty but this is a case I did not note or screenshot plenty of examples of. So right now I don't really remember. Recently there was the pound pairs, we can look at that again:

So ye there are alot of things to consider, let's see what happens next now.
But...

Trade closed: stop reached

Well falling like a rock now.

It was fun while it lasted.
We made about 1% in 15 hours.

It moved 2 ATR in 10 hours...

MrRenev

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MrRenev

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