PLTR Breaking Out or Bull Trap? Options Flow Says Bulls Might Win!
🔍 GEX & Options Flow Insight (1st Image Analysis)
PLTR is pushing into key resistance around $159.77, just under the 2nd CALL Wall at $161.44, with massive gamma clusters building overhead. Here's the breakdown:
* Call Walls & Gamma Resistance:
* 📍 $159.77 → Current wall that price is testing
* 📍 $161.44 → 2nd CALL Wall / Highest positive NET GEX
* 📍 $165–168 → 3rd Call Wall and deeper GEX levels = high resistance/squeeze potential
* Put Support Zones:
* 🔻 $155.00 / $153.00 / $151.06 → Multiple layers of liquidity and support
* 🛡️ $145.00 → 3rd PUT Wall = Strong downside defense
* Volatility Metrics:
* IVR: 35.4, IVx Avg: 73.5 → High IV suggests elevated premium
* Calls Flowing Heavy (40.4%), Bullish GEX 🌕🟢🟢
* Options sentiment is decisively bullish with strong open interest at upper walls
✅ Option Trading Suggestion:
Bias: Bullish momentum with caution at overhead resistance Strategy: Debit Call Spread or Vertical Fly
* Entry Idea: Buy 160C / Sell 165C (or 168C) for Aug 2 or Aug 9
* Risk: Price must hold above $156.24 to remain valid
* Target: $161.44 → $165.00 if gamma squeeze plays out
Why this works: PLTR is pressing into a GEX transition zone. If price breaks through $161.44 with volume, dealers will likely hedge net short exposure by buying more, pushing toward $165+. But risk is tight — failure to break 160 convincingly can lead to fast reversal.
🧠 Technical Analysis (1H Chart) (2nd Image Analysis below)
Market Structure & SMC:
* ✅ CHoCH → BOS confirmed mid-July, with aggressive bullish structure
* ⚠️ CHoCH again on July 30 = possible trap or reload
* Price now retesting previous BOS zone under supply
Trendline Analysis:
* Ascending trendline holding support from July 29 to now
* Price approaching upper wedge resistance around $160–161
SMC Zones:
* Order Block Support: Around 156.24–154.91
* Reversal Zone / Supply: Purple box between 159.77–161.44 → Caution for fakeout traps
* Below 153.06, liquidity opens to HVL gap zone at 151–145
🔄 Price Action & Key Levels
* Support:
* ✅ 156.24 → Critical order block + trendline confluence
* ✅ 154.91 → Confirmed demand wick
* 🔻 151.06 → Liquidity base
* ⚠️ 145.00 → 3rd PUT Wall (GEX-based demand)
* Resistance:
* 🔼 159.77–161.44 → Major supply + 2nd Call Wall = high-conviction resistance
* 🚀 165.00 → Next wall for gamma expansion
* 🧨 Above that → Blowoff zone (168+)
📉 Bearish Reversal Zone
If price fails to close above 160 or gets rejected from 161.44, watch for:
* Breakdown to 156.24 → If this fails, opens up to 154.91 then sweep to 151.06
* Options IV is high → risk of premiums collapsing on rejection, so avoid chasing long OTM calls
🔁 Summary Thoughts
* PLTR is coiling tightly under a strong gamma ceiling with a bullish structure intact.
* Option flow shows aggressive CALL positioning, suggesting bulls are betting on breakout.
* Smart money might be stacking up before pushing through 161.44 — or could trap retail and unwind.
* Day traders can long above 157.5–158 on dips toward 160–161.44. Swing traders should avoid entries until breakout confirmation or dip to OB.
* Watch gamma squeeze to 165 if bulls break structure.
🚨 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
🔍 GEX & Options Flow Insight (1st Image Analysis)
PLTR is pushing into key resistance around $159.77, just under the 2nd CALL Wall at $161.44, with massive gamma clusters building overhead. Here's the breakdown:
* Call Walls & Gamma Resistance:
* 📍 $159.77 → Current wall that price is testing
* 📍 $161.44 → 2nd CALL Wall / Highest positive NET GEX
* 📍 $165–168 → 3rd Call Wall and deeper GEX levels = high resistance/squeeze potential
* Put Support Zones:
* 🔻 $155.00 / $153.00 / $151.06 → Multiple layers of liquidity and support
* 🛡️ $145.00 → 3rd PUT Wall = Strong downside defense
* Volatility Metrics:
* IVR: 35.4, IVx Avg: 73.5 → High IV suggests elevated premium
* Calls Flowing Heavy (40.4%), Bullish GEX 🌕🟢🟢
* Options sentiment is decisively bullish with strong open interest at upper walls
✅ Option Trading Suggestion:
Bias: Bullish momentum with caution at overhead resistance Strategy: Debit Call Spread or Vertical Fly
* Entry Idea: Buy 160C / Sell 165C (or 168C) for Aug 2 or Aug 9
* Risk: Price must hold above $156.24 to remain valid
* Target: $161.44 → $165.00 if gamma squeeze plays out
Why this works: PLTR is pressing into a GEX transition zone. If price breaks through $161.44 with volume, dealers will likely hedge net short exposure by buying more, pushing toward $165+. But risk is tight — failure to break 160 convincingly can lead to fast reversal.
🧠 Technical Analysis (1H Chart) (2nd Image Analysis below)
Market Structure & SMC:
* ✅ CHoCH → BOS confirmed mid-July, with aggressive bullish structure
* ⚠️ CHoCH again on July 30 = possible trap or reload
* Price now retesting previous BOS zone under supply
Trendline Analysis:
* Ascending trendline holding support from July 29 to now
* Price approaching upper wedge resistance around $160–161
SMC Zones:
* Order Block Support: Around 156.24–154.91
* Reversal Zone / Supply: Purple box between 159.77–161.44 → Caution for fakeout traps
* Below 153.06, liquidity opens to HVL gap zone at 151–145
🔄 Price Action & Key Levels
* Support:
* ✅ 156.24 → Critical order block + trendline confluence
* ✅ 154.91 → Confirmed demand wick
* 🔻 151.06 → Liquidity base
* ⚠️ 145.00 → 3rd PUT Wall (GEX-based demand)
* Resistance:
* 🔼 159.77–161.44 → Major supply + 2nd Call Wall = high-conviction resistance
* 🚀 165.00 → Next wall for gamma expansion
* 🧨 Above that → Blowoff zone (168+)
📉 Bearish Reversal Zone
If price fails to close above 160 or gets rejected from 161.44, watch for:
* Breakdown to 156.24 → If this fails, opens up to 154.91 then sweep to 151.06
* Options IV is high → risk of premiums collapsing on rejection, so avoid chasing long OTM calls
🔁 Summary Thoughts
* PLTR is coiling tightly under a strong gamma ceiling with a bullish structure intact.
* Option flow shows aggressive CALL positioning, suggesting bulls are betting on breakout.
* Smart money might be stacking up before pushing through 161.44 — or could trap retail and unwind.
* Day traders can long above 157.5–158 on dips toward 160–161.44. Swing traders should avoid entries until breakout confirmation or dip to OB.
* Watch gamma squeeze to 165 if bulls break structure.
🚨 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.