4/8/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
QQQ
Don't fall for the meme
So.
You are following Trump on Truth Social.
(strike 1)
You are believing Dalio about the state of geopolitics.
(strike 2)
Jim Cramer is on in the background yelling
(strike 3)
Rando on X accounts "AI is a bubble"
(strike 4)
You can taper a USD ponzi scheme
(strike 5)
... i could go on.
Here's the reality.
- The stock market is real money. "Money" being defined as "something that has productive value". It it the best money? Maybe. BTC is pretty good too. Each have their own properties. Is the USD "money"? Well. Yes, but mostly no. It's mostly a liability.
- Is the global economy melting down? No. Have you not seen what AI can do beyond one-shotting prompts? This is far from what dotcom was. Dotcom never replaced people/ labor and services. So while there are a lot of meme companies out there attaching AI to their business descriptions, the core suspects are monetizing this today, and it's only getting more impressive (not by the week), but the *day*
- Does the debt market matter more than stonks rn? Yes. Up until a few days ago, lower yields (on UST's) emboldened speech to not give a F. Well, that's changed. Back to "you can't taper a ponzi". So better own productive assets. Gold has sniffed this out. BTC usually follows 3-6 months on Gold (as a smaller asset class) unless China decides to go full retard Jerome (which they might). And historically, China stimmy is the trigger for BTC getting sent. Weird the moon bois don't track this. But put it in the back of your mental model.
- So what do we do here? Productive assets that have visibility toward growth not just this year but into the next 3-5Y and are trading where cash yields and healthy balance sheets are >5% FCF's but ideally closer to 10%.
-
NXT remains in a tough tide. Solar as a category has just been so scammy. And even tho US builders are sourcing mainly from Vietnam (not China) etc. etc. people don't do the work in a correlation 1 world. So do we retrace the $32/shr gap? Idk. But I sized up so hard today. And tmr I'll be updating if we gap lower. it's 33% of book today. i take to 40% if we get to sub $35. and i get to 50% (LEAPS!) if we close dat gap.
- $OBTC. bitcoin at 8-10% off spot? lol. size manage, but definitely a good way to play the beta with larger size given the discount. almost like leverage without leverage. limits only. v illiquid. hence the discount.
- I like
BLDE here at $2.5 the TL;DR is this. 1/ cash generative. 2/ main biz is organ transport, and consumer biz is cash generative ans mostly rich ppl Uber in the sky 3/ two-thirds of the valuation is net cash and 4/ you can sell august 15 2025 calls for 55-60c today (at $2.5/shr) locking in 20% yield with some downside production (where the stock would theoretically trade close to zero valuation and you'd honestly want to own the stock anyway). so i've sized this up to nearly 20% of book.
- I like $UBER. 6% fcf yields. not tariff exposed. but it's defn travel-punching bag. I get it. Gap in the high 50s *shouldn't* fill, but i'm prepared if/when only because we're trading like everything is the same. That's what the room-temperature "I buy ETFs" crowd deserves. Pick and choose. So if we dump, this gets dumped and we go back there, I'd consider this an absolute gift. Flows vs. fundamentals already dominant. Better beta than mkt as we re-rip toward ATHs (my view remains) this year.
- $GAMB. 15% fcf yields. not tariff exposed. normies r gonna gamble. they have founder-led beats/raises. M&A, low liquidity keeps this waffling but ultimately a winner.
- $VST. trades like
NVDA (so does NXT) lol. it's a f'n utility that generates piles of cash, is insulated from the hyperscaler fall out (if/does happen... which is NOT my base case), but utimately has tons of power to serve up. $1.4M/MW cheap. 6% fcf yields. no brainer.
- $NVO. honorable mention. Euro's can't seem to grow a pair and buy this obvious cash generative winner. GL.
mm..
wealth isn't measured in USD's.
<3
V
PS - i think we go higher from here. avg. stock down 30% on my calculation from peak. index doesn't tell story. could be another 5-10% on index? yeah w/e. again back to point 1. in a ponzi scheme you own real things... and the USD is the biggest shit meme coin on the planet. it has value for a small period of time, but sooner than later you gotta put it to work. don't hold the USSA bag.
QQQDon't fall for the meme
So.
You are following Trump on Truth Social.
(strike 1)
You are believing Dalio about the state of geopolitics.
(strike 2)
Jim Cramer is on in the background yelling
(strike 3)
Rando on X accounts "AI is a bubble"
(strike 4)
You can taper a USD ponzi scheme
(strike 5)
... i could go on.
Here's the reality.
- The stock market is real money. "Money" being defined as "something that has productive value". It it the best money? Maybe. BTC is pretty good too. Each have their own properties. Is the USD "money"? Well. Yes, but mostly no. It's mostly a liability.
- Is the global economy melting down? No. Have you not seen what AI can do beyond one-shotting prompts? This is far from what dotcom was. Dotcom never replaced people/ labor and services. So while there are a lot of meme companies out there attaching AI to their business descriptions, the core suspects are monetizing this today, and it's only getting more impressive (not by the week), but the *day*
- Does the debt market matter more than stonks rn? Yes. Up until a few days ago, lower yields (on UST's) emboldened speech to not give a F. Well, that's changed. Back to "you can't taper a ponzi". So better own productive assets. Gold has sniffed this out. BTC usually follows 3-6 months on Gold (as a smaller asset class) unless China decides to go full retard Jerome (which they might). And historically, China stimmy is the trigger for BTC getting sent. Weird the moon bois don't track this. But put it in the back of your mental model.
- So what do we do here? Productive assets that have visibility toward growth not just this year but into the next 3-5Y and are trading where cash yields and healthy balance sheets are >5% FCF's but ideally closer to 10%.
-
NXT remains in a tough tide. Solar as a category has just been so scammy. And even tho US builders are sourcing mainly from Vietnam (not China) etc. etc. people don't do the work in a correlation 1 world. So do we retrace the $32/shr gap? Idk. But I sized up so hard today. And tmr I'll be updating if we gap lower. it's 33% of book today. i take to 40% if we get to sub $35. and i get to 50% (LEAPS!) if we close dat gap.- $OBTC. bitcoin at 8-10% off spot? lol. size manage, but definitely a good way to play the beta with larger size given the discount. almost like leverage without leverage. limits only. v illiquid. hence the discount.
- I like
BLDE here at $2.5 the TL;DR is this. 1/ cash generative. 2/ main biz is organ transport, and consumer biz is cash generative ans mostly rich ppl Uber in the sky 3/ two-thirds of the valuation is net cash and 4/ you can sell august 15 2025 calls for 55-60c today (at $2.5/shr) locking in 20% yield with some downside production (where the stock would theoretically trade close to zero valuation and you'd honestly want to own the stock anyway). so i've sized this up to nearly 20% of book.- I like $UBER. 6% fcf yields. not tariff exposed. but it's defn travel-punching bag. I get it. Gap in the high 50s *shouldn't* fill, but i'm prepared if/when only because we're trading like everything is the same. That's what the room-temperature "I buy ETFs" crowd deserves. Pick and choose. So if we dump, this gets dumped and we go back there, I'd consider this an absolute gift. Flows vs. fundamentals already dominant. Better beta than mkt as we re-rip toward ATHs (my view remains) this year.
- $GAMB. 15% fcf yields. not tariff exposed. normies r gonna gamble. they have founder-led beats/raises. M&A, low liquidity keeps this waffling but ultimately a winner.
- $VST. trades like
NVDA (so does NXT) lol. it's a f'n utility that generates piles of cash, is insulated from the hyperscaler fall out (if/does happen... which is NOT my base case), but utimately has tons of power to serve up. $1.4M/MW cheap. 6% fcf yields. no brainer.- $NVO. honorable mention. Euro's can't seem to grow a pair and buy this obvious cash generative winner. GL.
mm..
wealth isn't measured in USD's.
<3
V
PS - i think we go higher from here. avg. stock down 30% on my calculation from peak. index doesn't tell story. could be another 5-10% on index? yeah w/e. again back to point 1. in a ponzi scheme you own real things... and the USD is the biggest shit meme coin on the planet. it has value for a small period of time, but sooner than later you gotta put it to work. don't hold the USSA bag.
Trade active
taking a bit off the table. mkt still probably headed higher given reprieve with some vol but with upside skew. get f'd shorts.
remember. f'd up markets screw up both sides. don't get too wed one way or another.
high cash still not a bad option.
V
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.