This is a fear-adjusted momentum gauge
Big rallies in QQQ (January to July 2024 & May to August 2025) coincided with QQQ/VIX trending upward
Whenever QQQ/VIX rolled over (August to October 2024 & January to March 2025), QQQ sold off hard
As of late August 2025, the ratio is at +28%, near upper resistance zone where rallies have previously stalled
Ratio rising from neutral (~0%) into +20–40%, which confirms healthy momentum with low fear; however, the ratio is falling while QQQ still up (divergence)
QQQ/VIX is elevated, confirming risk-on, but at a spot where past rallies faded
- A higher ratio = strong risk appetite (bullish for QQQ)
- A lower ratio = stress (bearish for QQQ)
Big rallies in QQQ (January to July 2024 & May to August 2025) coincided with QQQ/VIX trending upward
- Price gains were stronger than implied volatility
Whenever QQQ/VIX rolled over (August to October 2024 & January to March 2025), QQQ sold off hard
- QQQ price sometimes “lingered flat” at first, but the ratio gave an early risk-off warning
As of late August 2025, the ratio is at +28%, near upper resistance zone where rallies have previously stalled
- QQQ price itself is consolidating near highs
- If the ratio holds above +20% and pushes higher, this confirms a risk-on continuation
- If it rolls back below +20%, this is a warning of correction, even if QQQ is still flat
Ratio rising from neutral (~0%) into +20–40%, which confirms healthy momentum with low fear; however, the ratio is falling while QQQ still up (divergence)
- Sharp drops below 0% (volatility leading) indicates strong downside risk
QQQ/VIX is elevated, confirming risk-on, but at a spot where past rallies faded
- Suggests short-term cautious bullish bias, but watch for reversal in ratio which would precede a QQQ pullback
I am not a licensed professional & these posts are for informational purposes only, not financial advice
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
I am not a licensed professional & these posts are for informational purposes only, not financial advice
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.