3 days ago

QQQ Bearish Reversal vs Bullish Continuation

QQQ broke out of a huge consolidation box (2024 into early 2025)

That breakout projected a measured move of ~144 points (26%–36%), targeting $600–$630
Price indeed advanced strongly toward that zone before stalling

1. Bearish Case (head & shoulders or double top plays out)

Breakdown below $568 with a target of $550, then maybe ~$537 (S2 pivot) if selling accelerates
That’s about a 4%–5% correction, which is normal within an uptrend
Double top is the cleaner, simpler read on this chart
Head & shoulders is more complex and requires symmetry, which isn’t perfect here
Both patterns target almost the same zone (~$550–$553), but the double top is easier to defend technically

2. Bullish Case (breakout resumes)

Hold $568, reclaim $583–$585 & push into $600 (R2)
Full measured move already points to $616–$633 longer term (R3–R4)

Probabilities (with macro context)

Continuation (push to $600–$616) @ 50%
Correction ($568 break to $550–$537) @ 40%
Extended chop ($568–$583 range) @ 10%

The breakout from that massive 2024–2025 range still dominates the chart & trend is up until $568 fails

The local Head & shoulders/double top is a warning sign, but not a confirmed reversal yet
The market is essentially asking, do we consolidate near highs before another leg up, or do we shake out to $550 first?

pakoumal

I am not a licensed professional & these posts are for informational purposes only, not financial advice

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pakoumal

I am not a licensed professional & these posts are for informational purposes only, not financial advice

Also on: