Short

QQQ Path to $600

Macro Tailwinds

~95% odds of a September rate cut, an actual cut plus dovish language would boost valuations
If inflation continues easing without a major growth slowdown, growth stocks could re-rate higher (soft landing vs stagflation narrative)

Yields

10Y Treasury back toward 3.8-4.0%
Lower yields historically supportive for QQQ

Earnings

Mag 7 beating expectations in Q3 & Q4 keeps AI momentum intact
More than 65-70% of NDQ100 above their 50d SMA would confirm strength beyond a few leaders

Technical Path

Support near ~$573
Resistance around $577–580 (recent intraday highs)
Sustained closes above $580 with expanding breadth and volume is a breakout trigger
QQQ’s top end from an extended channel projection ~$590–595
Measured move from March–July base (~$520–$560 = $40 range; breakout above $560 projects ~$600)
Break $580 in late August–September on dovish Fed + solid earnings = $600 by Q4
Fed cuts + AI blowout earnings = $600 by late September.
Core inflation sticky + yields up = stall at $580, retest $550 before end of year

Note

** I posted an updated version with some corrections

pakoumal

I am not a licensed professional & these posts are for informational purposes only, not financial advice

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pakoumal

I am not a licensed professional & these posts are for informational purposes only, not financial advice

Also on: