Macro Tailwinds Needed
Fed Policy
Rate Cut in September — Market is pricing ~93–95% odds; an actual cut plus dovish language would boost valuations.
Soft Landing Narrative — If inflation continues easing without a major growth slowdown, growth stocks could re-rate higher.
Yields
10-Year Treasury back toward 3.8–4.0% — Lower yields reduce discount rates on future tech earnings, historically supportive for QQQ.
Earnings
"Mag 7" beating expectations in Q3 & Q4 — Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon need to deliver both EPS beats and strong guidance, keeping AI momentum intact.
Broad Participation — More than 65–70% of Nasdaq-100 above their 50-day MA would confirm strength beyond a few leaders.
2️⃣ Technical Path
Current Level: ~$573
Immediate Resistance: $577–580 (recent intraday highs)
Sustained closes above $580 with expanding breadth and volume is a breakout trigger
QQQ’s top end from an extended channel projection ~$590–595
~61% of QQQ stocks are above their 200d SMA, but only ~48% above 50d SMA
Risks
Break $580 in late August–September on dovish Fed + solid earnings = $600 by Q4
Fed Policy
Rate Cut in September — Market is pricing ~93–95% odds; an actual cut plus dovish language would boost valuations.
Soft Landing Narrative — If inflation continues easing without a major growth slowdown, growth stocks could re-rate higher.
Yields
10-Year Treasury back toward 3.8–4.0% — Lower yields reduce discount rates on future tech earnings, historically supportive for QQQ.
Earnings
"Mag 7" beating expectations in Q3 & Q4 — Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon need to deliver both EPS beats and strong guidance, keeping AI momentum intact.
Broad Participation — More than 65–70% of Nasdaq-100 above their 50-day MA would confirm strength beyond a few leaders.
2️⃣ Technical Path
Current Level: ~$573
Immediate Resistance: $577–580 (recent intraday highs)
Sustained closes above $580 with expanding breadth and volume is a breakout trigger
QQQ’s top end from an extended channel projection ~$590–595
- Measured move from March–July base (~$520–$560 = $40 range; breakout above $560 projects ~$600)
~61% of QQQ stocks are above their 200d SMA, but only ~48% above 50d SMA
- 50d (%) above 60–65%
- New highs consistently > 8–10% of index components
Risks
- Core CPI remains sticky (like the latest 3.1% YoY) which delays Fed cuts
- Geopolitical/tariff shocks hitting supply chains or tech exports
- Earnings misses from big AI names which reverses sentiment
- Yield spike above 4.4% on the 10-year (valuation compression)
Break $580 in late August–September on dovish Fed + solid earnings = $600 by Q4
- Fed cuts + AI blowout earnings = $600 by late September.
- Core inflation sticky + yields up = stall at $580, retest $550 before YE
Note
** I posted an updated version with some corrections
I am not a licensed professional & these posts are for informational purposes only, not financial advice
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
I am not a licensed professional & these posts are for informational purposes only, not financial advice
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.