7/31/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
RBLX
again: you can do better w/ less risk elsewhere
feel compelled to recycle this logic, because my sentiment has not changed at all.
- would like to own, let's clear the air, but nowhere NEAR where it's trading
- if i give credit for "80 mm" of yoy cash gen each Q this year that gets me to 380 mm of "FCF" (in quotes b/c 100% of it is stock comp, but let's just ignore that elephant for now), round up 400 mm on 25 bn mkt cap. that's sub 2% yield
- what's better? e.g. META. you're growing faster, nearly double the cash yields, as one example. even *that* one isn't obvious into EPS print let's say
- basically the stock has filled the gap (in this case really a hole) from the last release.
- the google trends remain downward sloping which while not totally indicative, are helpful to gauge:
trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&
honestly, if you're long this thing - i'm rooting for you - but at the same time i'm genuinely surprised it's recovered so much from the last print to where we are today. perhaps it could get taken out (you could say the same of a lot of stuff lol) and that's not really bullet point #1 in most investment briefs.
just be careful, k?
V
RBLXagain: you can do better w/ less risk elsewhere
feel compelled to recycle this logic, because my sentiment has not changed at all.
- would like to own, let's clear the air, but nowhere NEAR where it's trading
- if i give credit for "80 mm" of yoy cash gen each Q this year that gets me to 380 mm of "FCF" (in quotes b/c 100% of it is stock comp, but let's just ignore that elephant for now), round up 400 mm on 25 bn mkt cap. that's sub 2% yield
- what's better? e.g. META. you're growing faster, nearly double the cash yields, as one example. even *that* one isn't obvious into EPS print let's say
- basically the stock has filled the gap (in this case really a hole) from the last release.
- the google trends remain downward sloping which while not totally indicative, are helpful to gauge:
trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&
honestly, if you're long this thing - i'm rooting for you - but at the same time i'm genuinely surprised it's recovered so much from the last print to where we are today. perhaps it could get taken out (you could say the same of a lot of stuff lol) and that's not really bullet point #1 in most investment briefs.
just be careful, k?
V
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.