7/1/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
SBET
How I'm trading this
- tl;dr, this is the first *larger* eth "treasury" attempts
- while the world is focused on
BMNR today at 10x NAV, this sits quietly at 1.5x nav
- there are two ways shareholders who would buy, say, at today's price would make an "eth yield"
- 1/ co raises debt, converts, prefs etc. any flavor and uses this to buy ETH and ETH appreciates in excess of this yield. my sense is this is more difficult "today" given the institutional view of BTC remains *hard enough* (even tho, really, it's not). but with stable coins becoming more in focus, this gives important life to eth narrative in coming cycle (more on this below)
- 2/ the mNAV is allowed to expand. if i raise at say 1.5x MNAV and then the stock appreciates toward say 3x MNAV and i raise there again to buy eth... the original holders essentially got a pro-rata distribution in excess of their initial stake. where the logic, here, fails... is that if this is your *only* way to raise $... eventually you collapse back to mnav, essentially... the inverse is also true. if you buy at 3x mnav and stock goes to 2x mnav, uh oh. it requires ever-increasing mnav. we know from BTC treasuries this might be up to 5x (mstr) and up to 10x (metaplanet) and really just depends on your story, size, mgmt, ability to raise outside of just equity etc. etc.
- now with this all being said... we look at something likeBMNR today and there are two main outcomes
- 1/ 10x mnav is too high and likely they're advantaged to raise here and dilute current shareholders to buy ETH and in essence it's tough to imagine much more mnav acceleration (but we *are* in that whacky tape and people are just trading price -- i know this from some comment i read today). fair. if this is the case, flows toSBET should be very positive
- 2/ mnav fromBMNR start to collapse toward say 5x and this affects sentiment for other "eth treasury" co's, namely SBET and this thing goes to 1.2x mnav vs. say 1.5x today... no bueno
-3/ there are others (two others), but above is 80% I think of pie
so why eth? aren't you a BTC only guy V?
- mm yeah BTC is the only commodity
- but i also trade stocks, tech etc. and that's just want these other things are Eth, Sol etc.
- with
HOOD launching their L2 on 
ARB the other day, tokenizing stocks, with the realization that banks will want to float and distribute their own stables across crypto rails sooner vs. later (and legislation that's allowing for it... more stables = stronger dollar and USD dominance globally)... 
ETH will earn the lionshare of the upside here.
- of course flows will eventually find their way into $sol...
SUI, 
SEI, etc. etc. but for now ETH is probably the lowest-risk way to play this
- I'm not ruling out that our garden variety pullback sends BTC back to $90k and you know what happens when BTC sneezes... everyone else catches a flu. So that could really hamperETH action short term.
- But I like the idea of playing not onlyETH at a *reasonable* valuation here (you do pay 50% more! keep that in mind), but there seems to be a willingness to overpay (as BMNR shows). so i'm content to neck out here to capture a 50-100% move. but small enough to either size up, look elsewhere and/or close with a loss without any flesh wounds.
tl;dr... if u like $bmnr... u should likeSBET more.
V
SBETHow I'm trading this
- tl;dr, this is the first *larger* eth "treasury" attempts
- while the world is focused on
BMNR today at 10x NAV, this sits quietly at 1.5x nav- there are two ways shareholders who would buy, say, at today's price would make an "eth yield"
- 1/ co raises debt, converts, prefs etc. any flavor and uses this to buy ETH and ETH appreciates in excess of this yield. my sense is this is more difficult "today" given the institutional view of BTC remains *hard enough* (even tho, really, it's not). but with stable coins becoming more in focus, this gives important life to eth narrative in coming cycle (more on this below)
- 2/ the mNAV is allowed to expand. if i raise at say 1.5x MNAV and then the stock appreciates toward say 3x MNAV and i raise there again to buy eth... the original holders essentially got a pro-rata distribution in excess of their initial stake. where the logic, here, fails... is that if this is your *only* way to raise $... eventually you collapse back to mnav, essentially... the inverse is also true. if you buy at 3x mnav and stock goes to 2x mnav, uh oh. it requires ever-increasing mnav. we know from BTC treasuries this might be up to 5x (mstr) and up to 10x (metaplanet) and really just depends on your story, size, mgmt, ability to raise outside of just equity etc. etc.
- now with this all being said... we look at something like
BMNR today and there are two main outcomes- 1/ 10x mnav is too high and likely they're advantaged to raise here and dilute current shareholders to buy ETH and in essence it's tough to imagine much more mnav acceleration (but we *are* in that whacky tape and people are just trading price -- i know this from some comment i read today). fair. if this is the case, flows to
SBET should be very positive- 2/ mnav from
BMNR start to collapse toward say 5x and this affects sentiment for other "eth treasury" co's, namely SBET and this thing goes to 1.2x mnav vs. say 1.5x today... no bueno-3/ there are others (two others), but above is 80% I think of pie
so why eth? aren't you a BTC only guy V?
- mm yeah BTC is the only commodity
- but i also trade stocks, tech etc. and that's just want these other things are Eth, Sol etc.
- with
HOOD launching their L2 on ARB the other day, tokenizing stocks, with the realization that banks will want to float and distribute their own stables across crypto rails sooner vs. later (and legislation that's allowing for it... more stables = stronger dollar and USD dominance globally)... ETH will earn the lionshare of the upside here.- of course flows will eventually find their way into $sol...
SUI, SEI, etc. etc. but for now ETH is probably the lowest-risk way to play this- I'm not ruling out that our garden variety pullback sends BTC back to $90k and you know what happens when BTC sneezes... everyone else catches a flu. So that could really hamper
ETH action short term.- But I like the idea of playing not only
ETH at a *reasonable* valuation here (you do pay 50% more! keep that in mind), but there seems to be a willingness to overpay (as BMNR shows). so i'm content to neck out here to capture a 50-100% move. but small enough to either size up, look elsewhere and/or close with a loss without any flesh wounds.tl;dr... if u like $bmnr... u should like
SBET more.V
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.