Market falls downward

36

1. Resistance Zone May Be Weak

Observation: A red rectangle marks a resistance area.

Disruption: This "resistance" level is based on a short-term bounce and may not have strong historical confluence. It lacks multiple rejections to establish it as a true resistance zone.



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2. Overemphasis on Bearish Bias

Observation: Two bearish paths (blue and yellow) dominate the projection, indicating an expected drop.

Disruption: This may be prematurely bearish. There's no confirmation of rejection yet—no strong bearish candlestick pattern (like a shooting star, engulfing, or evening star) is visible in that zone.



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3. Lack of Bullish Consideration

Observation: A small green arrow is shown but not given much weight.

Disruption: The recent candles show higher lows, indicating potential bullish pressure. If price breaks above the marked zone, it may trigger a short squeeze rally.



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4. Volume Misalignment

Observation: Volume spikes during the bounce, especially on the green candles.

Disruption: Rising volume on a recovery typically supports continuation upward. This analysis ignores the bullish volume context and instead forecasts reversal.



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5. No Higher Timeframe Confluence

Observation: 1-hour chart used in isolation.

Disruption: A strong bearish or bullish direction on the 4H or Daily chart would validate or invalidate this local setup. Without it, the trade thesis lacks broader context.

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